Research on the Fluctuation Law and Influencing Factors of Egg Price—Based on PVAR Model and Spatial Econometric Model
With the rapid development of agricultural products market in China,the price of agricultural products has been paid more and more attention by the government and residents.As an important product in China's"vegetable basket project",it is of great significance to accurately grasp the fluctuation law and influencing factors of egg price to stabilize the poultry market.In this paper,monthly panel data from 30 provinces(except Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from January 2012 to March 2020 were used to explore the spatial effect of egg prices and the impact of chicken prices,corn prices,consumer price index,avian flu epidemic,and the cumulative increase of COVID-19 on egg prices.Firstly,the seasonal and periodic fluctuation characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of egg prices in China were studied by analyzing the change curve and spatial distribution map of egg prices in China.Secondly,through the construction of PVAR model,based on non-spatial measurement methods such as variable co-integration test,Granger causality test and impulse response analysis,the factors that significantly affect the change of egg price are obtained.Finally,the space factors are taken into consideration,on the basis of confirming the spatial correlation of egg prices,the spatial error panel model with fixed effects is selected through Hausman,LM and other test methods.Based on this,it is concluded that the cost factor was the main reason for the fluctuations of the egg price in China.Accordingly,some suggestions were put forward,such as guiding the market direction in different seasons,perfecting the egg transportation system,strengthening the government supervision and controlling the egg market by focusing on key areas.
egg pricepanel dataPVAR Modelspatial econometric modelMoran's index
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
