Hepatitis B Vaccination Effectiveness Evaluation Study Based on Heterogeneous Dynamic Model
China is one of the countries with high burden of hepatitis B in the world.The number of newly infected people every year has been at a high level.The infection proportion of people over 15 years old is as high as 97.5％.Vaccination is the most effective way to reduce the risk of disease transmission.It is very necessary to effectively analyze and evaluate the role of vaccination or supplementary vaccination in adult groups.On the basis of analyzing the data of new infections in different age groups,we develop a model of hepatitis B transmission dynamics including multiple age groups and vaccination,fit the data of new hepatitis B cases in multiple age groups,obtain the model parameters,and compute the basic regeneration number R0=1.0230,and perform sensitivity analysis on R0;Simulations yield the strongest negative correlation between vaccination and R0 in the first age group,and increasing the proportion of vaccinations significantly reduces hepatitis B transmission.Simulations yield the strongest negative correlation between vaccination and Ro in the first age group,and increasing the proportion of vaccinations significantly reduces hepatitis B transmission.According to simulation results of different vaccination programs on the number of hepatitis B cases,vaccination in the 25-35 and 40-55 age groups can be helpful in reducing the number of hepatitis B cases.However other more effective control measures should be taken to completely control the spread of hepatitis B.
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