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"一带一路"倡议能实现沿线国家互利互惠吗?

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在"一带一路"倡议提出的十周年之际,基于2003-2021年全球179个国家的面板数据,运用双重差分模型考察了"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家政治互信、经济互融、技术溢出和人文互通等四方面的影响。研究结果表明:"一带一路"倡议显著促进了沿线国家的政治互信、经济互融、技术溢出和人文互通,经过一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立;异质性检验表明,"一带一路"倡议的政策效应在发展中国家和中低收入国家更明显,并且对非洲国家经济互融效应更显著,对亚洲国家的技术溢出效应更显著;"一带一路"倡议具有时间动态效应,即随着时间推进对沿线国家互利互惠效应更为明显。为此,我国应当继续推进"一带一路"建设,促进与沿线国家的交流和合作,推动构建人类命运共同体。
Can the"Belt and Road"Initiative Achieve Mutual Benefit for Countries along the Belt and Road?
On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the"Belt and Road"Initiative,based on the Panel data of 179 countries in the world from 2003 to 2021,this paper uses the difference-in-difference model to examine the impact of the"Belt and Road"Initia-tive on political mutual trust,economic integration,technology spillovers and people-to-people exchanges among countries along the"Belt and Road".The research results show that the"Belt and Road"Initiative has significantly promoted political mutual trust,economic integration,technology spillovers and people-to-people exchanges among countries along the Belt and Road,and the con-clusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests;The heterogeneity test shows that the policy effect of the"Belt and Road"Initia-tive is more obvious in developing countries and low-and middle-income countries,with more significant economic integration ef-fect on African countries and more significant technology spillover effect on Asian countries;The"Belt and Road"Initiative has a time dynamic effect,that is,the mutual benefit and reciprocity effect on countries along the Belt and Road is more obvious as time goes on.To this end,the research of this paper provides policy recommendations for continuing to promote the construction of the"Belt and Road",promoting exchanges and cooperation among countries along the line,and promoting the recommendations of the Community of Common Destiny.

the"Belt and Road"Initiativepolitical mutual trusteconomic integrationtechnology spilloverspeople-to-people exchangedifference-in-difference

齐珺、李光勤

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安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠 233030

"一带一路"倡议 政治互信 经济互融 技术溢出 人文互通 双重差分

安徽省哲学社会科学基金

AHSKY2022D050

2024

山西大同大学学报(自然科学版)
山西大同大学

山西大同大学学报(自然科学版)

影响因子:0.271
ISSN:1674-0874
年,卷(期):2024.40(3)