In the perspective of the"dual carbon"target,in order to achieve the"dual carbon"target as scheduled in Gansu Province and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of carbon reduction plans and measures,this article is based on the car-bon emissions data of Gansu Province from 2009 to 2021,and uses the ARIMA model to predict the carbon emissions,carbon inten-sity,and per capita carbon emissions of Gansu Province from 2023 to 2033.Through data learning training,the best model for pre-dicting carbon emissions is ARIMA(2,1,0),Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)is 0.016 2,the best model for predicting car-bon emission intensity is(0,1,0),MAPE is 0.0328,the best model for predicting per capita carbon emissions is(1,1,0),MAPE is 0.018 6,and the predicted values are all within the 95%confidence interval,indicating high prediction accuracy.The research results indicate that the future carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in Gansu Province are still on the rise year by year,while the carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year.According to the predicted data and trends,it can be seen that in order for Gansu Province to achieve the"dual carbon"goals on schedule,it is necessary to develop strong carbon reduction plans and mea-sures,and enforce and implement them through relevant laws and regulations.
关键词
碳排放量/碳排放强度/ARIMA模型
Key words
carbon emissions/carbon emission intensity/ARIMA model
维普
万方数据