The Effect of RCEP on China's Agricultural Exports:Based on the Perspective of New Margin
RCEP entered into force on January 1,2022,marking the birth of the world's largest free trade agree-ment.Nearly 90 percent of agricultural products in the region can be tariff-free trade immediately or in the future.This will bring greater growth to the development of China's agricultural export trade.This paper adopts a new method to measure trade margin,and establishes a new model that predicts the effect of RCEP on the trade flows to assess the impact of accession to RCEP on China's agricultural export trade flows.We find that:Firstly,RCEP will drive the export growth of all segments of agricultural products in China,with the differences in export growth rate of different industries and faster export growth of the agricultural industries with the high proportion of the least traded products;Secondly,the growth rate of China's exports to different member countries is not the same.On the whole,compared with other member countries,the growth rates of exports to South Korea and Japan are faster.The research results of this paper will help to understand the benefits of accession to RCEP to China's segmented indus-tries and provide reference for the adjustment of China's foreign trade policy and agricultural industry policy.
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