重庆市工业SO2排放的驱动因素及预测研究
Research on the driving factors and prediction of industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing
傅俊越 1周启刚2
作者信息
- 1. 重庆工商大学 环境与资源学院,重庆 400067
- 2. 重庆工商大学 公共管理学院,重庆 400067
- 折叠
摘要
利用重庆市大气污染排放数据,分析了重庆市2000～2021 年工业大气污染物的排放特征,运用LMDI模型对重庆市工业SO2 排放量的主要影响因素进行了分析,基于灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了2022～2030 年重庆市工业SO2 的排放量变化.结果表明,2000～2021 年,重庆市工业SO2 的排放量由 66.42 万t减少到 4.17 万t,减少了93.7%.经济发展规模(ΔG)对SO2 排放始终具有正向驱动作用,而产业结构(ΔS)、能源消耗强度(Δf)和SO2 排放强度(ΔI)主要对SO2 排放起抑制作用.2025 年重庆市工业SO2 排放量将减少到 1.56 万t,2030 年将继续减少到0.47 万t.
Abstract
The paper analyzes the emission characteristics of industrial air pollutants in Chongqing from 2000 to 2021 using atmospheric pollutant emission data,the LMDI model was used to analyze the main in-fluencing factors of industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing,based on the grey GM(1,1)model,the chan-ges in industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing from 2022 to 2030 were predicted.The results showed that the emission of industrial SO2 in Chongqing decreased from 664 200 t to 41 700 t,a decrease of 93.7%from 2000 to 2021,the scale of economic development(ΔG)always has a positive driving effect on SO2 emissions,while industrial structure(ΔS)and energy consumption intensity(Δf)and SO2 emission inten-sity(ΔI)mainly inhibits SO2 emissions.The industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing will be reduced to 15 600 t in 2025 and will continue to decrease to 4 700 t by 2030.
关键词
大气污染/工业SO2/LMDI模型/灰色GM(1,1)模型Key words
air pollutants/industrial SO2/LMDI model/grey prediction GM(1,1)model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
重庆市技术创新与应用发展重点研发项目(cstc2018jszxzdyfxmX0021)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据