Research on the driving factors and prediction of industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing
The paper analyzes the emission characteristics of industrial air pollutants in Chongqing from 2000 to 2021 using atmospheric pollutant emission data,the LMDI model was used to analyze the main in-fluencing factors of industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing,based on the grey GM(1,1)model,the chan-ges in industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing from 2022 to 2030 were predicted.The results showed that the emission of industrial SO2 in Chongqing decreased from 664 200 t to 41 700 t,a decrease of 93.7%from 2000 to 2021,the scale of economic development(ΔG)always has a positive driving effect on SO2 emissions,while industrial structure(ΔS)and energy consumption intensity(Δf)and SO2 emission inten-sity(ΔI)mainly inhibits SO2 emissions.The industrial SO2 emissions in Chongqing will be reduced to 15 600 t in 2025 and will continue to decrease to 4 700 t by 2030.
air pollutantsindustrial SO2LMDI modelgrey prediction GM(1,1)model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
