摘要
对电力电量准确预测,把握其不确定性和随机性对电力市场的管理和发展具有重要意义.该文首先对电力市场及其环境下电力电量预测进行了简要概述;其次,从数据预处理、预测方法和预测场景 3 个角度出发,对面向电力市场的用户侧电力电量预测研究现状进行了总结与分析,详细阐述了新兴负荷、考虑分布式电源的接入、考虑需求响应、面对特殊事件与极端环境和面对综合能源系统 5 个场景下用户电力电量预测现状;最后,对现有研究面临的挑战进行了分析,并对未来研究方向进行了展望.
Abstract
Accurately predicting electricity quantity and taking command of its uncertainty and randomness is of great significance for the management and development of the power market.This paper,first of all,gives a brief overview of the electricity market and its environment.Secondly,from three perspectives of data preprocessing,forecasting methods and forecasting scenarios,the paper summarizes and analyzes the current research status of the user-side P&E forecasting for the power market,and expounds in detail the current situation of the user-side P&E forecasting under five scenarios:emerging load,considering the access of distributed power sources,considering demand response,facing special events and extreme environments,and facing the integrated energy system.Finally,the challenges facing the existing research are analyzed,and the future research direction is prospected.
基金项目
陕西省重点研发计划(2023-YBGY-304)
国家电网总部科技项目(5400-202321572A-3-2-ZN)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据