碳中和目标下电力需求预测体系构建及华东区域电力需求发展趋势研究
A Study on the Construction of the Power Demand Forecasting System under Carbon Neutrality Goal and the Development Trend of Power Demand in East China
李灏恩 1姜雨萌 1戚宇辰 1刘子秋 2崔旻 2夏凯 2李昱蓉2
作者信息
- 1. 国网上海市电力有限公司经济技术研究院,上海 200001
- 2. 华东电力设计院有限公司,上海 200001
- 折叠
摘要
碳达峰、碳中和将加速全社会各行各业,尤其是能源系统的转型,而电力行业作为能源枢纽,能源领域在双碳转型过程中将对电力需求带来不可忽视的影响.该文立足于分析双碳目标对于能源电力的影响,挖掘双碳和电力需求的关联性,提出碳中和目标下分行业发展趋势分析思路,构建了一套适应于双碳目标下的电力电量预测方法体系;以华东区域作为典型案例,研究了华东区域碳达峰至碳中和过程中的电力需求发展趋势.研究结果表明,所构建的分析思路和方案体系科学可行,预测结论合理.
Abstract
Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will accelerate the transformation of various industries in society,especially the energy industry.As the power industry is an energy hub,the dual carbon transformation process in the energy sector will have an undeniable impact on electricity demand.On the basis of analyzing the impact of the dual carbon goal on energy and electricity,this paper explores the correlation between the dual carbon goal and electricity demand,proposes an analysis approach for the development trend of different industries under the carbon neutrality goal,and constructs a set of electricity quantity prediction methods under the dual carbon goal.Taking East China as a typical case,the paper studies the development trend of medium and long-term electricity demand in East China in the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.The research results show that the analysis ideas and scheme system constructed are scientific and feasible,and the prediction conclusions are reasonable.
关键词
碳达峰碳中和/低碳转型/终端能源/电能替代/电力需求Key words
carbon peaking and carbon neutrality/low-carbon transition/terminal energy/electricity substitution/electricity demand引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据