Development and Verification of a Surgical Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Cervical Cancer:Based on a Real World Cohort Study
Objective:To develop and verify a nomogram to predict disease-free survival(DFS)and overall survival(OS)for patients undergoing cervical cancer surgery,which may provide reference for evaluating the prognosis of cervical cancer patients undergoing surgery.Methods:The clinical,pathological and follow-up data of patients who underwent radical operation for cervical cancer in Xijing Hospital,Air Force Medical University from March 2013 to October 2018 were analyzed retrospectively.Based on Cox regression analysis,Bayesian Informa-tion Criterion(BIC)backward stepwise selection method and R square screening variables,Net Reclassification Index(NRI)and Integrated Discrimination Improvement(IDI)were used to compare the predictive efficiency of the model,and a nomogram with better predictive efficiency was selected.The consistency index(C-index)and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)were used to test the efficiency of the nomogram.Results:A total of 950 patients with cervical cancer were enrolled in this study.The risk factors for constructing the DFS nomogram were FIGO stage(2018),parametrium invasion,invasion depth,and maximum tumor diameter.The C-index for DFS in the training cohort and the verification cohort were 0.754 and 0.720,respectively.The area under ROC of the training cohort for 1-,3-and 5-years was 0.74(95%CI 0.65-0.82),0.77(95%CI 0.71-0.83)and 0.79(95%CI0.74-0.85),and the areas under ROC of verification cohort 1-,3-and 5-years were 0.72(95%CI 0.58-0.87),0.75(95%CI 0.64-0.86)and 0.72(95%CI 0.61-0.84),respectively.The risk factors for con-structing the OS nomogram were FIGO stage(2018),histological type,LVSI,parametrium invasion,surgical mar-gin,and invasion depth.The C-index for OS in the training cohort and the verification cohort were 0.737 and 0.759,respectively.The area under ROC of the 3-and 5-year training cohort were 0.76(95%CI 0.69-0.83)and 0.78(95%CI 0.72-0.84),and the areas under ROC of verification cohort 3-and 5-years were 0.76(95%CI 0.65-0.87)and 0.79(95%CI 0.69-0.88),respectively.Conclusions:This study is based on real-world big data to construct nomogram of DFS for 1,3,and 5 years and OS for 3,and 5 years for cervical cancer,which have ideal predictive effects and help clinical physicians correctly evaluate the prognosis of cervical cancer surgery patients.It provides strong reference basis for diagnosis,treatment,and prognosis evaluation.
万方数据
维普
