Establishment and Validation of a Platinum Resistance Recurrence Prediction Model for Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of platinum resistant recurrence in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer(AEOC),establish a nomogram model to predict platinum-resistant recurrence of AEOC,and inter-nally validate it.Methods:The clinicopathological data of 577 AEOC patients who achieved complete remission af-ter initial treatment in the Department of Gynecology,Yunnan Cancer Hospital from June 1,2013 to December 31,2021 were collected.According to whether the platinum free interval(PFI)was less than 6 months,the patients were divided into platinum-resistant recurrence group(130 cases)and non-platinum-resistant group(447 cases,including patients with platinum-sensitive recurrence and no recurrence after 6 months of follow-up).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen for the independent risk factors affecting the recurrence of plati-num-resistant patients.Based on the independent risk factors,a nomogram prediction model was established,and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification.The area under the ROC curve(AUC),calibration curve and decision curve(DCA)were used to evaluate the performance of the model.Results:①There were statistically sig-nificant differences in age,bilateral ovarian invasion,FIGO staging,menopause,neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NACT),chemotherapy interval(TTC),platelet count(PLT),platelet count/lymphocyte count ratio(PLR),fibrino-gen/lymphocyte count ratio(FLR),prognostic nutritional index(PNI),albumin(ALB),CA125 level,ascites volume,residual lesions,perioperative chemotherapy frequency,and CA125 half-life between the two groups(P＜0.05).②Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that bilateral ovarian invasion,FIGO stage Ⅳ,TTC＞16 days,ini-tial ascites volume＞1000ml,perioperative chemotherapy frequency＞9 times,surgery with R2 resection,CA125 half-life＞52 days were independent risk factors for recurrence of platinum-resistant AEOC patients(OR＞1,P＜0.05).③The AUC of the nomogram model constructed based on the above 7 indicators was 0.791(95％Cl 0.747-0.835),and the calibration curve and ideal curve fitted well.DCA showed that the net benefit interval of the model was 0.037-0.800.Conclusions:The nomogram prediction model based on independent risk factors for the recurrence of platinum-resistance of AEOC patients has good discrimination,calibration and clinical appli-cability,which can better predict the recurrence risk of platinum-resistance in AEOC patients after the initial treat-ment.
Advanced epithelial ovarian cancerPlatinum resistance relapsedPrediction model
万方数据
维普
