Reliability analysis of process flow of station yard based on GO method and Bayesian network
In order to ensure the safe production and operation of the oil and gas station and yard and improve the integrity management level of the station yard,the failure rate of static equipment and dynamic equipment was calculated by risk based inspection(RBI)and reliability centered maintenance(RCM)technologies.Then,the process flow chart was converted into a goal-oriented(GO)diagram,and the GO diagram was mapped to a Bayesian network according to the logical relationship between operators and signal flows.The reliability parameters of the station yard,such as the failure rate,maintenance rate,average maintenance time,and average failure probability were calculated,and a station yard was taken as an example for evaluation.The results show that the failure rate of the metering separator,three-phase separator,oil heat exchanger,oil-water settling tank,flash tank,regeneration tower,filter,and other equipment in the station yard to be evaluated is high.The reliability of the process subsystem and the whole station yard is related to the availability,repairability,and stand-by of the equipment.The average failure probability of the whole station yard is 4.59×10-2,which is greater than that of any process subsystem,indicating that the risks continue to increase as process logistics develops,and there is a hidden danger of risk superposition.
RBIRCMGO methodBayesian networkreliabilityaverage failure probability
万方数据
维普
