Risk assessment of station equipment based on modified RBI and considering domino effect
The classical RBI theory has poor universality in risk assessment,and neglects area overlapping and other problems caused by the domino effect in calculating the consequence area.Therefore,based on the distribution form of actual equipment failure data,this paper established a failure probability model of similar equipment and calculated the damage probability of equipment after the accident escalation by combining the domino effect and the damage scope of different consequence types.In addition,the calculation of the consequence overlapping area was realized by using the arc-area algorithm.Finally,the hierarchical and quantitative evaluation of the equipment in the station was completed by the risk matrix.The results show that the two-parameter Weibull distribution can effectively reflect the reliability of the equipment through the K-S test and goodness of fit.The actual consequence area of the deethanizer boiler accident is 1183.34 m2,the calculation method neglecting the domino effect underestimating it by 30.7％and the method without eliminating overlapping area overestimating it by 211.4％.The results of the equipment risk assessment increase by one to two grades compared with the results of conventional methods.The research results can provide a practical reference for the improvement of the safety operation management level of oil and gas stations.
RBIdominostation equipmentriskWeibull distributionconsequence area
万方数据
维普
