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基于层次分析法的出砂风险预测新方法

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为了提高油气田的产能,需要精准的预测井下出砂情况.而出砂情况受多种因素影响,目前较为常见的预测方法有声波时差法、B指数法、S指数法以及实验法等.但是以上预测方法所使用的参数都有所不同,可能导致同一口井数据使用不同方法得出的结论不同.为了解决这个问题只能提升预测方法的精准度,提高精准度的方式就有尽可能考虑多项参数,进而判断出砂风险,所以需要一个综合性的多参数体系的出砂风险预测方法.运用层次分析法进行多种方法的加权从而得出一种出砂风险预测新方法,并利用出砂风险预测新方法对流花 28-2 气田的LH28-2-1 井进行出砂风险预测,结果与现场实际吻合,新方法对油气田出砂风险预测有较好的指导意义.
A new method for risk prediction of sand production based on analytic hierarchy process
In order to improve the productivity of oil and gas fields,it is necessary to accu-rately predict the downhole sand production.However,the sand production situation is af-fected by a variety of factors,and the more common prediction methods include acoustic time difference method,B-index method,S-index method and experimental method.Howev-er,the parameters used in the above prediction methods are different,which may lead to dif-ferent conclusions using different methods for the same well data.In order to solve this prob-lem,the accuracy of the prediction method can only be improved,and the way to improve the accuracy is to consider multiple parameters as much as possible to judge the sand risk,so a comprehensive multi-parameter system of sand risk prediction method is needed.A new method for predicting sand production risk was obtained by weighting multiple methods by using the analytic hierarchy process,and the new method of sand risk prediction was used to predict the sand production risk of well LH28-2-1 in Liuhua 28-2 gasfield,and the results were consistent with the actual situation in the field,and the new method had good guiding significance for the prediction of sand production risk in oil and gas fields.

prediction of sand production riskB-index methodS-index methodanalytic hierarchy process

张天玮、杨玉贵、兰佳豪、吴惠梅

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中海石油(中国)有限公司北京研究中心,北京 100029

油气钻采工程湖北省重点实验室(长江大学),湖北 武汉 430100

出砂风险预测 B指数法 S指数法 层次分析法

2024

石油化工应用
宁夏化工学会

石油化工应用

影响因子:0.276
ISSN:1673-5285
年,卷(期):2024.43(12)