To realize the real-time risk assessment and accident prevention in the storage tank area of the station,based on the establishment of the bow tie model,the time dimension is introduced through mapping rule,the main hazard sources of storage tank leakage and the types of accident consequences under different safety barriers are summarized,and the conditional probabilities of different nodes are determined through the omission probability model,so as to form the dynamic Bayesian network model of the storage tank of the station.The variation law of the probability of tank accident with time is deduced,and is analyzed and verified with the case.The results show that the leakage probability of the tank first increases and then decreases,and reaches the peak value at the third time slice.The basic events with higher posterior probability are related to the intermediate events of tank corrosion.With the extension of time slice,the severe corrosion grade increases linearly,the medium corrosion grade keeps basically unchanged,and the minor corrosion grade decreases exponentially.In the 10th time slice,the accident consequence probability of oil and gas accumulation is the highest,and the accident consequence probability of steam cloud explosion is the least,indicating that strengthening the emergency shutdown system and avoiding the formation of confined space are effective ways to reduce the accident consequences.
关键词
蝴蝶结模型/贝叶斯网络/储罐区风险/时间片
Key words
bow tie model/Bayesian network/tank-farm risk/time slice
维普
万方数据