Research on Risk Assessment of Wellhead Christmas Tree Based on Bayesian Network
In order to reduce the failure possibility of christmas tree during service,on the basis of building the failure tree model of the christmas tree,the transformation of the failure tree model to the Bayesian network model is realized.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy set theory,the prior probability of the root node is solved.By defining the time variation characteristics of the relevant nodes,the change of the failure probability of the christmas tree at different times is obtained.The results show that the failure probability of christmas tree is 1.24×10-2,in which the valve leakage is the highest,followed by flange leakage.The calculated results are consistent with the actual situation.Medium corrosion,impurities influid,erosion corrosion,nut loosening and disc deformation are the main factors leading to christmas tree failure,which should be paid attention to in field management.
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