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Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

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With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative,China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative.In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments,it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout.This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions.On this basis,game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights,and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021.Finally,the GM(1,1)model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025.In conclusion,oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk,and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results.The research findings may provide scientific decision-making recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

Belt and Road InitiativeOil and Gas InvestmentRisk assessment

Bao-Jun Tang、Chang-Jing Ji、Yu-Xian Zheng、Kang-Ning Liu、Yi-Fei Ma、Jun-Yu Chen

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,100081,China

School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing,100081,China

Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing,Beijing,China

Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing,Beijing,China

Institute of Carbon Neutrality,ShanghaiTech University,Shanghai,201210,China

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China

School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China

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国家自然科学基金Key Projects of the National Social Science FoundationProject of the CNOOC Energy Economics Institute

7193400423AZD065EEI-2022-IESA-0009

2024

10.1016/j.petsci.2023.10.009

石油科学(英文版)
中国石油大学（北京）

石油科学(英文版)

EI
影响因子：0.88
ISSN：1672-5107
年,卷(期)：2024.21(2)
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