Evolution,resilience and causes of global petroleum gas trade networks:1995-2020

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外文摘要：Based on the HS 4-digit code trade data in UNCOMTRADE from 1995 to 2020,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the global PG trade network using the complex network approach and analyzes the changes in its resilience at the overall and country levels,respectively.The results illustrated that:(1)The scale of the global PG trade network tends to expand,and the connection is gradually tightened,experiencing a change from a"supply-oriented"to a"supply-and-demand"pattern,in which the U.S.,Russia,Qatar,and Australia have gradually replaced Canada,Japan,and Russia to become the core trade status,while OPEC countries such as Qatar,Algeria,and Kuwait mainly rely on PG exports to occupy the core of the global supply,and the trade status of other countries has been dynamically alternating and evolving.(2)The resilience of the global PG trade network is lower than that of the random network and decreases non-linearly with more disrupted countries.Moreover,the impact of the U.S.is more significant than the rest of countries.Simulations using the exponential random graph model(ERGM)model revealed that national GDP,institutional quality,common border and RTA network are the determinants of PG trade network formation,and the positive impact of the four factors not only varies significantly across regions and stages,but also increases with national network status.

外文关键词：

Petroleum gasComplex network approachNetwork resilienceExponential random graph model

作者：

Na Li、Yi-Ran Song、Ying Wang、Chun-Bao Ge

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作者单位：

School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China

School of Business,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,Jiangsu,China

Hefei Advanced Research Institute,Anhui University of Finance & Economics,Hefei,230071,Anhui,China

出版年：

2024

DOI：