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基于蒙特卡罗法的高校易燃易爆实验室不安全因素风险评估

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为了减少高校实验室火灾爆炸事故,参考"2-4"模型理论,以实验开展流程对2001年来发生的46起火灾爆炸事故进行分析,基于蒙特卡罗法构建了不安全因素风险评估模型.对实验前准备、实验操作过程、实验后整理、实验材料、仪器设备5个环节的不安全因素风险后果值进行累计概率分布,通过敏感度分析得出各不安全因素对风险值的影响.结果表明,实验材料、实验操作过程2个环节的风险值最高;"未熟知实验危险有害因素""废弃物处理不当""实验试剂材料违规购买、存放或使用""危险实验未防护"及"试剂材料选取方式不符合规定或更改设备操作顺序"5个不安全因素的敏感度值大于30%,对风险值的影响较大.在此基础上对各环节及重点不安全因素的提出事故预防措施.
Unsafe Factors Risk Analysis of University Inflammable and Explosive Laboratories Based on Monte Carlo Method
In order to reduce the fire and explosion accidents in university laboratories,referring to the"2-4"model theory,the 46 fire and explosion accidents that occurred since 2001 were analyzed by the experimental process,and a risk assessment model of unsafe factors based on Monte Carlo method was constructed.The cumulative probability distribution of the risk consequence values of unsafe factors in the five links of pre-experiment preparation,experimental operation process,post-experiment arrangement,experimental materials and equipment was obtained,and the influence of each unsafe factor on the risk value was obtained through sensitivity analysis.The results show that the risk value of the two links of experimental materials and experimental operation process is the highest.The sensitivity values of the five unsafe factors of"not familiar with the dangerous and harmful factors of the experiment","improper disposal of waste","illegal purchase,storage or use of experimental reagent materials","unprotected dangerous experiments"and"selection of reagent materials does not meet the regulations or change the operation sequence of the equipment"are more than 30%,which has a greater impact on the risk value,and proposes accident prevention measures for each link and key unsafe factors.

flammable and explosive laboratoriesMonte Carlo methodunsafe factorsrisk analysis modelpreventive measures

姜喜迪、仲淑姮

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中国矿业大学(北京)能源与矿业学院,北京 100083

易燃易爆实验室 蒙特卡罗法 不安全因素 风险评估模型 预防措施

教育部科技委2021战略研究项目中国矿业大学(北京)教学改革研究项目

教技委[2021]6号J221102

2024

实验室研究与探索
上海交通大学

实验室研究与探索

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.69
ISSN:1006-7167
年,卷(期):2024.43(4)
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