首页|支气管哮喘患儿治疗依从性的影响因素及其风险预测列线图模型构建

支气管哮喘患儿治疗依从性的影响因素及其风险预测列线图模型构建

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目的 探讨支气管哮喘(BA)患儿治疗依从性的影响因素,构建其风险预测列线图模型并进行验证。方法 选取2021年6月—2023年12月扬州大学附属医院收治的360例BA患儿,按照7∶3比例采用随机数字表法将其分为训练集(252例)和验证集(108例)。收集患儿的临床资料,根据BA患儿治疗依从性将训练集中BA患儿分为依从性好组(n=124)和依从性差组(n=128),采用多因素Logistic回归分析探讨BA患儿治疗依从性的影响因素,采用R 3。6。3软件及"rms"程序包建立BA患儿治疗依从性差的风险预测列线图模型;采用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价训练集与验证集中该列线图模型的拟合程度;采用ROC曲线分析该列线图模型对训练集与验证集BA患儿治疗依从性差的预测价值。结果 依从性差组与依从性好组年龄、母亲文化程度、家长对BA知识了解情况、家长对医护人员信任程度、有不良反应者占比和病情严重程度比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0。05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄[OR=3。008,95%CI(1。720~5。260)]、不良反应[OR=4。246,95%CI(2。229~8。088)]、病情严重程度[OR=3。195,95%CI(1。812~5。632)]是BA患儿治疗依从性的独立影响因素(P<0。05)。基于上述因素构建BA患儿治疗依从性差的风险预测列线图模型。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果显示,在训练集及验证集中该列线图模型拟合程度较好(P>0。05)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,在训练集及验证集中该列线图模型预测BA患儿治疗依从性差的AUC分别为0。743[95%CI(0。682~0。804)]、0。778[95%CI(0。691~0。866)]。结论 年龄、不良反应、病情严重程度是BA患儿治疗依从性的独立影响因素,基于上述因素构建的BA患儿治疗依从性差的风险预测列线图模型具有较好的拟合程度及一定区分能力。
Influencing Factors of Treatment Compliance in Children with Bronchial Asthma and Construction of Nomogram Model for Predicting Its Risk
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of treatment compliance in children with bronchial asthma(BA),construct its risk prediction nomogram model,and validate it.Methods A total of 360 BA children admitted to Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University from June 2021 to December 2023 were selected,and according to a 7∶3 ratio,they were assigned into a training set(252 cases)and a validation set(108 cases)via random number table method.Clinical data of the children were collected,and the BA children in training set were divided into good compliance group(n=124)and poor compliance group(n=128)complying with compliance of treatment.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors of treatment compliance in children with BA.The nomogram model for predicting the risk of poor treatment compliance in children with BA was constructed by using the R 3.6.3 software and"rms"package.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was used to evaluate the fitting degree of the nomogram model in training set and validation set.ROC curve was used to analyze the predictive value of the nomogram model for poor treatment compliance in children with BA in training set and validation set.Results There were significant differences in age,maternal education level,parental understanding of BA knowledge,parental trust in medical staff,proportion of adverse reactions,and severity of disease between poor compliance group and good compliance group(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age[OR=3.008,95%CI(1.720-5.260)],adverse reactions[OR=4.246,95%CI(2.229-8.088)],and severity of the disease[OR=3.195,95%CI(1.812-5.632)]were independent influencing factors of treatment compliance in children with BA(P<0.05).The nomogram model for poor predicting treatment compliance in children with BA was constructed according to above factors.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the nomogram model fitted well in the training set and validation set(P>0.05).The ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the nomogram model for predicting poor treatment compliance in children with BA in the training set and validation set was 0.743[95%CI(0.682-0.804)]and 0.778[95%CI(0.691-0.866)],respectively.Conclusion Age,adverse reactions,and severity of disease are independent influencing factors for treatment compliance in children with BA,and the risk prediction nomogram model for poor treatment compliance in children with BA constructed based on these factors has good fitting degree and certain discriminative ability.

Bronchial asthmaChildTreatment adherence and complianceRoot cause analysisNomograms

王永霞、蒋丽军、翟秀玲、姚娣、朱小娟

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225003 江苏省扬州市,扬州大学附属医院儿科

支气管哮喘 儿童 治疗依从性 影响因素分析 列线图

2025

实用心脑肺血管病杂志
河北省心脑肺血管病防治研究办公室

实用心脑肺血管病杂志

影响因子:1.864
ISSN:1008-5971
年,卷(期):2025.33(2)