Design and Application of the Monitoring Index for the Outflow of Chinese Scientific Papers
Scientific research achievements are important strategic resources for a country to strive for technological self-reliance.Scientific papers serve as an important form of carrying out these research achievements.The outflow of scientific papers has brought many negative impacts on China's scientific and technological development and national security.In order to comprehensively understand the outflow of scientific papers in China,this study collects data on papers published in non-Chinese SCI scientific journals from 1987 to 2022 in China.The ARMA model is applied to establish a predictive model for the outflow of Chinese scientific papers and we design a monitoring index for the outflow trend for application analysis.It is found that Chinese scientific papers have not always been in a state of outflow.The monitoring index for the outflow trend of Chinese scientific papers declines from 1988 to 1995,increases rapidly from 1996 to 2006,and almost remains the same after 2006.From the perspective of outflow,Chinese scientific papers do not show outflow characteristics from 1990 to 2003,but show sustained outflow characteristics from 2004 to 2021,and show reflux characteristics in 2022.To further reverse the outflow trend of Chinese scientific papers,it is necessary to focus on three aspects,including accelerating the reform of the research evaluation system,encouraging the establishment of excellent English scientific journals in key areas,and expanding the scope of international cooperation and promoting in-depth international cooperation.
Outflow of Scientific PapersScientific JournalSCI PaperTime-Series Analysis
万方数据
维普
