Fuze Safety Failure Assessment Method Based on Evidence Theory Under Interval Probability
It is difficult to determine the precise probability owing to the lack of fundamental data in fuze safety assessment.To solve this problem,evidence theory was used to assess fuze safety failure rate under interval probability.The uncertainty of basic event was characterized by constructing basic probability assignment,then the uncertainty was propagated using cumulate belief function and cumulate plausibility function based on struc-ture function of failure tree,and the probability box of top event was obtained.Consequently,not only the bounds of top event was gained,but also all possible cumulate distribution functions were deduced.Good per-formance of the proposed method was demonstrated by numerical result.
万方数据
维普
