基于组合赋权-DEA的跨境铁路外部环境风险评价
External Environmental Risk Assessment of Cross-border Railways Based on Combination Weighting DEA
李艳丽 1马帅 1李利军 1郭湛2
作者信息
- 1. 石家庄铁道大学,石家庄 050043
- 2. 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司,北京 100081
- 折叠
摘要
研究目的:跨境铁路大多穿越不同国家,铁路沿线的自然、社会环境条件复杂多变,给跨境铁路外部环境安全带来巨大威胁.为保障跨境铁路平稳运行,采用组合赋权-DEA方法在全面识别跨境铁路沿线风险的基础上进行风险评价,旨在为跨境铁路风险管理工作提供借鉴.研究结论:(1)全面识别跨境铁路沿线外部环境风险,从自然环境与社会环境方面共选取30个风险指标构建跨境铁路外部环境风险评价指标体系,结合AHP-熵权法对各风险指标组合赋权;(2)应用基于DEA的风险评价方法,以各风险指标发生的概率和后果为变量,对跨境铁路外部环境风险进行评价和排序;(3)研究结果显示,跨境铁路侵限风险应予以重点关注,安保区内违法生产经营次之;(4)本文研究可为跨境铁路沿线外部环境安全管理工作提供新的思路,保障跨境铁路运输更加平稳高效运行.
Abstract
Research purposes:Most cross-border railways cross different countries,and the natural and social environmental conditions along the railway line are complex and variable,posing a huge threat to the external environmental security of cross-border railways.To ensure the smooth operation of cross-border railways,a combination weighting DEA method is adopted to conduct risk assessment based on comprehensive identification of risks along cross-border railways,providing reference for cross-border railway risk management work.Research conclusions:(1)Comprehensively identify external environmental risks along cross-border railways,select a total of 30 risk indicators from the perspectives of natural and social environments to construct a cross-border railway external environmental risk assessment index system,and combine the AHP entropy weight method to assign weights to each risk indicator combination;(2)Apply the risk assessment method based on DEA,using the probability and consequences of each risk indicator as variables,to evaluate and rank the external environmental risks of cross-border railways;(3)The research results show that the invasion risk of cross-border railway should be given special attention,followed by illegal production and operation within the security zone;(4)This paper can provide new ideas for the management of external environmental security along cross-border railways,ensuring a more stable and efficient operation of cross-border railway transportation.
关键词
AHP/熵权法/DEA/跨境铁路/铁路安全Key words
entropy weight method/DEA/cross-border railway/railway safety引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国国家铁路集团有限公司项目(2021YJ205)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据