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铁路工程建设环水保风险演化研究

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研究目的:随着绿色发展理念的提出,对铁路工程建设环境保护和水土保持提出了更高的要求.为顺利完成工程建设环水保目标,识别铁路工程建设环水保风险因素,建立环水保风险演化的系统动力学模型,并以H铁路工程项目为例进行仿真分析,了解风险演化过程,明确风险防控的重点任务.研究结论:(1)在建设过程中环水保风险呈现先增加后稳定的总体趋势,其中开工建设前期为环水保风险的集中涌现阶段;(2)风险因素取值的变化将对环水保风险产生不同程度的影响,其中环水保专项资金不足改变对环水保风险系统影响最大,人员专业能力不足和环境本底调查不全面次之,施工机械污染大变动对系统影响较小;(3)工程项目引入风险预警机制有利于控制环水保风险,预警值的大小将影响风险防控效果;(4)本研究结果可为工程项目防控环水保风险提供借鉴与参考.
Research on Evolution of Environmental Protection and Water and Soil Conservation Risk in Railway Engineering Construction
Research purposes:With the proposal of the concept of green development,higher requirements have been put forward for the environmental protection and water and soil conservation in railway engineering construction.In order to complete the environmental protection and water and soil conservation objective successfully,this paper identified the risk factors of environmental protection and water and soil conservation in railway engineering construction,established a system dynamics model for the evolution of environmental protection and water and soil conservation risk,and conducted simulation analysis using the H railway engineering project as an example to illustrate the risk evolution process and clarify the key tasks of risk prevention and control.Research conclusions:(1)The environmental protection and water and soil conservation risk increases first and then stabilizes during the construction process,and the early stage of build process is the period of risk emergence.(2)Changes in the value of risk factors will have varying degrees of impact on environmental protection and water and soil conservation risk.The insufficient special fund for environmental protection and water and soil conservation has the greatest impact on the risk system,followed by insufficient professional competence of personnel and incomplete environmental background investigation,large construction machinery pollution has a small impact on the system.(3)The adoption of risk warning mechanism into engineering projects is beneficial for controlling environmental protection and water and soil conservation risk,and the magnitude of the early warning value will affect the effectiveness of risk prevention and control.(4)The reseach results can provide reference for the prevention and control of environmental protection and water and soil conservation risk in engineering projects.

railway engineering constructionenvironmental protection and water and soil conservation riskrisk evolutionsystem dynamic

郭峰、吴彦林、古江林

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中南大学,长沙 410075

铁路工程建设 环水保风险 风险演化 系统动力学

国家自然科学基金中国中铁股份有限公司科技研发计划重大课题

714400092021-重大-06

2024

铁道工程学报
中国铁道学会 中国铁路工程总公司 中国中铁股份有限公司

铁道工程学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.996
ISSN:1006-2106
年,卷(期):2024.41(5)
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