摘要
日益凸显的耕地"非粮化"问题对耕地资源保护和粮食安全保障产生威胁,识别"非粮化"驱动因素及其作用路径,对于构建逆"非粮化"策略意义重大.论文借助多元线性回归分析与系统动力学模型,分析非粮现象的驱动系统,探讨"非粮化"治理策略.研究发现:(1)中国耕地"非粮化"现象演化由机会成本与对外贸易等因素综合驱动,具体表现为农业发展水平、农民经济收入和对外贸易依存度驱动了"非粮化"现象上升,生产条件的改善则有利于抑制非粮化.(2)仿真目前政策情景发现,粮食生产者囿于低效益,"非粮化"现象愈演愈烈.(3)仿真逆"非粮化"政策情景发现,针对粮食补贴、生产成本和贸易策略,降低生产成本,可以遏制非粮趋势,维护粮食安全.建议在短期治理中,可以依靠精准化粮食补贴与动态化粮食收储遏制非粮选择;在长期治理中,要依靠现代化农业生产提高生产效率,促进种粮积极性,加快防控"非粮化"的步伐.
Abstract
The increasingly prominent issue of non-grain cultivated land poses a threat to the protection of farm-land resources and food security.It is of great significance to identify the influencing factors of non-grain phe-nomenon and their action paths for simulating the driving strategy of reverse non-grain.The study finds that(1)the evolution of non-grain in China is driven by multiple factors such as opportunity costs and international trade.The level of agricultural development,farmers'economic income and the degree of foreign dependence on food are the main driving factors,and the improvement of modernization level will help to manage the problem of non-grain.(2)Grain producers are constrained by low efficiency,and the non-grain area and degree are on the rise,making it tough to prevent excessive non-grain phenomenon.(3)The simulation of the reverse"non-food"policy finds that the exploration and improvement of food subsidies,production costs and trade protection can curb the non-food trend and maintain food security.It is suggested that precision grain subsidies and dynamic grain purchase and storage can be relied on to curb non-food selection in short-term governance.In the long-term management,we must rely on modern agricultural production to improve efficiency,promote the enthusiasm of grain farming,and accelerate the prevention and control of"non-grain"pace.
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