Advance Booking Behavior of High-speed Railway Passengers
The research on the ticket purchasing behavior of high-speed railway passengers is of significant importance for railway enterprises in predicting demand,pricing optimization,and seat allocation.Taking into account the heteroge-neity between individual and group passenger levels,this paper established mixed and latent class logit models to investi-gate the impact of factors such as travel time periods,ticket type,and supply-demand relationships on passenger choices of ticket purchase timing.By utilizing ticket sales data to estimate model parameters,the study reveals the patterns in the timing of high-speed railway passenger ticket purchases:passengers traveling in the afternoon and evening of the day are more likely to purchase tickets on the day of or one day before their travel.Passengers purchasing full-price tickets,chil-dren's tickets,and half-price tickets tend to buy tickets within 9 to 30 days before departure,while passengers with free tickets often choose to take the train as they arrive at the station shortly before departure.Supply-demand relationships significantly influence passenger choices of ticket purchase timing,with a more pronounced impact as the departure date approaches.By further combining the prediction value of ticket sales volume with passenger ticket purchase probabilities,the study calculates the distribution of ticket sales volumes in the presale horizon.This can serve as a basis for railway enterprises to make decisions on pre-allocating seats and implementing dynamic pricing strategies.
万方数据
维普
