Identically Distributed Probability Evolution Method for Numerical Characteristic Solution of Derailment Factors
In order to explore the statistical characteristics of derailment factors of high-speed trains,the identically dis-tribution probability evolution method was proposed to study the numerical characteristics(mean and standard deviation)and threshold of derailment factors,probability distribution and the preconditions of obeying the distribution.The rela-tionship between the mean and standard deviation of derailment factors and numerical characteristics of lateral and verti-cal wheel-rail contact forces was obtained by using this method.The mathematical condition of derailment factor approxi-mately following Gaussian distribution was verified by using this method.The Monte Carlo method was used to verify the numerical characteristics of the derailment factors,to compare the computational efficiency of different methods.Finally,the threshold of derailment factors was obtained by threshold estimation method proposed in this paper.Based on this cal-culation method and the case of EMU passing through a 3-span bridge,the derailment coefficients of trains under differ-ent track spectra,train speeds and bridge dynamic deflection conditions were studied.The calculation results show that:for common high-speed railway bridges,the derailment factor has Gaussian characteristics.The proposed method in this paper can accurately obtain the numerical characteristics of the derailment factors under different working conditions,with high calculation efficiency.The tail distribution of derailment factor is not the Gaussian distribution,and the corre-sponding threshold estimation method needs to be used for different working conditions to achieve the confidence level of the 3σ rule of the Gaussian distribution.
derailment factoridentically distributed probability evolution methodnumerical characteristicsthreshold estimation method3σ rule
万方数据
维普
