系统性金融风险对宏观经济运行的非线性影响研究
Research on the Nonlinear Impact of Systematic Financial Risks on Macroeconomic Operations
曾骁昳1
作者信息
- 1. 福州外语外贸学院财务与会计学院(福建 福州 350001)
- 折叠
摘要
为了探究系统性金融风险对宏观经济的影响,该研究采用了CRITIC法和因子分析法,构建系统性金融风险指数和宏观经济韧性水平指数.通过MS-VAR模型探讨了不同区制状态下金融风险对宏观经济的非线性效应.研究发现,系统性金融风险对宏观经济存在时变影响,短期内对宏观经济造成负向冲击,但长期来看反而会提高经济韧性.研究结果还表明,系统性金融风险对宏观经济具有明显的时变特征,实时采取预防和控制措施,有序处置突出风险,有助于促进经济实现高质量发展.研究通过将经济韧性作为宏观经济抵御风险和冲击的评价指标,为宏观经济的发展提供了一个新的研究视角,同时为宏观经济抵御风险、促进经济的高质量发展提供了有力指导.
Abstract
In the critical stage of China's economic transformation,systematic financial risks have a signifi-cant impact on macro-economy.The study used CRITIC and factor analysis methods to construct a system-atic financial risk index and a macroeconomic resilience level index.The researchers explored the nonlinear effects of financial risk on macro-economy under different regimes using the MS-VAR model.The results show that systematic financial risks have a time-varying impact on macro-economy,causing a negative im-pact on macro-economy in the short term,but in the long run,they will actually improve economic resilience.The research conclusion indicates that systematic financial risks have obvious time-varying characteristics on macro-economy.Real time prevention and control measures are taken to orderly dispose of prominent risks,which helps to promote high-quality economic development.
关键词
系统性金融风险/宏观经济韧性/经济景气指数/MS-VAR模型/非线性效应Key words
systematic financial risk/macroeconomic resilience/economic sentiment index/MS-VAR model/nonlinear effect引用本文复制引用
基金项目
2021年福州外语外贸学院教育教学改革研究项目(JF2021008)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据