解读2024台湾选举:决胜因素、政治新结构、台湾新民意及台海新态势
Interpreting the 2024 Taiwan Election:Decisive Factors,New Political Structure,New Public Opinion and New Dynamics in the Taiwan Strait
倪永杰1
作者信息
摘要
2024台湾地区"二合一"选举过程复杂曲折、扑朔迷离,选举结果合乎逻辑,既在意料之外,又在情理之中.赖清德惨胜,打破执政八年轮替的魔咒,但民进党丧失"立院"过半优势,沦为弱势领导、双少数执政权.侯友宜惨败,国民党"立院"小赢,增加了制衡民进党的实力,但后势难测.柯文哲得票数漂亮,民众党成为"立院"关键变量.选后台湾政治结构深度调整,绿与非绿二元竞争中演绎出蓝、绿、白三方戏码,赖清德执政面临"六座大山",国民党出现权力盘整与世代交替迹象,民众党迎来重大发展机遇."立法院"成为台湾政治重心,年轻世代的两岸态度仍具可塑性.选举反映出"四要""四重""四反""四疑"及"四误"的台湾新民意.赖清德具有"台独"冒险冲动,有可能制造变相"法理台独"等多种台海风险,台海新态势迎来暴风骤雨甚至政治海啸已不可避免.大陆宜处变不惊,以智应变.
Abstract
2024 Taiwan's"two-in-one"election process is complex,tortuous and dramatic.The election results are logical,both unexpected and reasonable.Lai Ching-te's pyrrhic victory broke the curse of the eight-year turnover of the ruling party.The DPP lost the advantage of more than half of the"Legislative Institution"and became a weak leadership and the double minority administration.Hou Yu-ih failed miserably.The KMT"Legislative Insititution"won by a small margin,which increased their power to balance the DPP but the future is still unpredictable.With the beautiful vote count of Ko Wen-je,the TPP has become a key variable in the"Legislative Insititution".After the election,in-depth adjustments to Taiwan's political structure were made.The competition between Green and non-Green actors is presenting a three-actor play of Blue,Green,and White,and Lai Ching-te's administration is facing the"Six Mountains".The KMT is showing sighs of the shift in power and generational transition.The TPP will usher in a major development opportunity.The Legislature in the Taiwan region has become the center of political focus in the region.The cross-Strait attitude of the younger generation is still malleable.The election reflected the"Four Imperatives","Four Priorities","Four Objections","Four Doubts",and"Four Mistakes".Lai Ching-te has the impulse to take risks for"Taiwan independence"and may create various risks in the Taiwan Strait,such as pursuing"jurisprudential independence"in disguise.A storm or even a political tsunami will inevitably come to the new situation in the Taiwan Strait.Chinese mainland should remain unperturbed and respond to it with wisdom.
关键词
"蓝白合"/少数政权/年轻世代/"台独"冒险/台湾新民意/台海新态势Key words
"Blue-White Cooperation"/Minority Regime/Young Generation/"Taiwan Independence"Adventure/Taiwan's New Public Opinion/New Situation in the Taiwan Strait引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据