2024选后台湾地区政党格局变化及其影响
Changes in the Political Party Structure in Taiwan after the 2024 Election and Its Impact
陈先才 1郑雨竹2
作者信息
- 1. 厦门大学台湾研究中心;厦门大学
- 2. 厦门大学台湾研究院
- 折叠
摘要
2024年台湾地区"二合一"选举结果,使台湾政党格局呈现三足鼎立的发展趋势.赖清德以"双重少数"形式当选面临"弱势执政"困境,国民党虽成为立法机构第一大党,但自身发展面临严峻挑战,民众党掌握"关键少数"未来发展值得关注.选后政党格局的变化,是台湾地区蓝绿长期政治恶斗、经济陷入停滞、民进党执政不得民心等综合因素反映在社会民意上的结果.未来四年,台湾政党竞争会更趋激烈,朝野斗争或使政治运作陷入空转.此外,赖清德当选,两岸关系不确定因素增加,台海危机隐患加剧.但是这些都改变不了两岸关系的基本格局和发展方向,两岸关系发展的主导权和主动权在大陆一方.
Abstract
The results of the"two-in-one"election in Taiwan in 2024 will make Taiwan's party structure show a tripartite development trend.Lai Ching-te was elected in a"double minority"situation and faces the dilemma of"weak governance".Although the KMT has become the largest party in the legislative institution,its development faces severe challenges.The future development of the"key minority"controlled by the TPP deserves attention.The changes in the political party structure after the election are the result of comprehensive factors such as Taiwan's long-term political infighting between"Pan-Blue Camps"and"Pan-Green Camps",economic stagnation,and the unpopularity of the DPP with people.In the next four years,Taiwan's political party competition will become more intense,and the struggle between the"government"and the opposition may bring political operations to a halt.In addition,the election of Lai Ching-te has increased uncertainties in cross-Strait relations and intensified the hidden danger of a"Taiwan Strait crisis".However,it cannot change the basic pattern and development direction of cross-Strait relations.The leadership and initiative in the development of cross-Strait relations lies in Chinese mainland.
关键词
2024台湾地区选举/台湾政党格局/"双重少数"/民众党/关键少数Key words
2024 Taiwan Election/Taiwan Political Party Structure/Lai Ching-Te/"Double Minority"/TPP/Key Minority引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据