2024台湾选举评析:以催票率为视角
Commentary on the 2024 Taiwan Election:From the Perspective of the Percentage of All Voters'Ballots Obtained
王贞威 1谭馨2
作者信息
- 1. 厦门大学台湾研究院政治所;厦门大学港澳台研究中心
- 2. 厦门大学港澳台研究中心
- 折叠
摘要
催票率指相关政党或候选人从全体合格选民中获取和动员选票的能力,计算方式为所得票数除以选举人数.从催票率看2024年台湾地区选举,显示国、民两党的催票能力到达历史最低点,民众党成为影响台湾政局的"关键第三者".选后岛内迎来以"三党不过半"为主要特征的三足鼎立的历史新阶段,以维持现状为主要诉求的中间道路将成为主流,两岸关系风险冲突增加但整体可控.
Abstract
The vote-catching rate refers to the ability of the relevant political party or candidate to obtain and mobilize votes from all eligible voters.It is calculated by dividing the number of votes obtained by the number of electors.From the perspective of the vote collection,the 2024 Taiwan regional election rate shows that the ability of the KMT and the DDP to collect votes has reached a historical low.The TPP has become the"Key Third Party"influencing Taiwan's political situation.After the election,the Taiwan region entered a historical tripartite stage characterized by the"none of the three parties won a majority".The middle line,with the maintenance of the status quo as its main demand,will become the mainstream,making the risk of conflict in cross-Strait relations increasing,but controllable on the whole.
关键词
2024台湾选举/催票率"/三党不过半"/维持现状/中间道路Key words
2024 Taiwan Election/Vote-catching Rate/"None of the Three Parties Won a Majority"/Maintaining the Status Quo/Middle Path引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金(2023)(23BZZ098)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据