Research on the Hidden Debt Risk of Local Government in Environmental Governance PPP Based on Bayesian Network
Local government debt risk is the main source of financial risk in environmental governance PPP.It is urgent to accurately identify the risk factors.Combined with the composition,characteristics and current situation of local government's invisible debt,this paper analyzes the five dimensions of local government debt risk caused by PPP in environmental governance.Based on the construction of a Bayesian network model,this paper analyzes the key factors and the key cause chain of local government's implicit debt risk.The research shows that the new debt ratio,the change rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure,the economic growth rate and the fiscal deficit ratio are the key sensitive factors for the formation of the hidden debt risks of local governments.Debt dependence,new debt ratio,and implicit debt risk are the greatest cause chain policy poposals of the increase of implicit government debt risk.The new debt ratio is the most critical factor of the hidden debt risk.Finally,from the aspects of regulating the financial management system and curbing the increment of hidden debt,this paper puts forward for the prevention and control of local government's implicit debt risk in environmental governance PPP.
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