首页|基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的荆州市生态安全评估

基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的荆州市生态安全评估

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为探索荆州市的生态安全底线,模拟未来的土地利用变化和生态系统服务价值变化,为荆州市的生态保护制定合理的政策建议,从供给和需求的角度,结合粮食安全标准,测算了荆州市的生态安全底线;利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型在自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护和双重保护4种情景下,模拟了未来的土地利用变化和生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:荆州市的供给生态安全底线为1 227。56亿,需求生态安全底线为7 690。12亿,存在较大的生态安全缺口;双重保护情景下的生态系统服务价值最接近需求生态安全底线,也能提供相对更多的粮食,最有利于平衡生态安全和粮食安全。本文探索性地从供给和需求的角度结合粮食安全标准,计算了荆州市的生态安全底线,利用了一种先进的土地利用变化模拟方法,为其他地区的生态安全评估和保护提供了借鉴,为荆州市的生态环境优化模式和方向提供了参考。
Ecological Security Assessment of Jingzhou City Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model
To explore the ecological security bottom line of Jingzhou city,simulate future changes in land use and ecosystem service value,and formulate reasonable policy recommendations for ecological protection in Jingzhou city,this article calculated the ecological security bottom line of Jingzhou city from the perspectives of supply and demand,combined with food security standards,The GeoSOS-FLUS model was used to simulate future changes in land use and ecosystem service value under four scenarios:natural development,ecological protection,farmland protection,and dual protection.The results showed that the supply ecological security bottom line of Jingzhou city was 1 227.56 billion yuan,and the demand ecological security bottom line was 7 690.12 billion yuan,indicating a signif-icant ecological security gap.The ecosystem service value under the dual protection scenario was closest to the demand for ecological security bottom line,and could also provide relatively more food,which was most conducive to balancing ecological security and food security.This article explored the ecological security bottom line of Jingzhou city from the perspectives of supply and demand,com-bined with food security standards.We had utilized an advanced land use change simulation method,which provided a reference for e-cological security assessment and protection in other regions.This provides a reference for the ecological environment optimization model and direction in Jingzhou city.

ecological security bottom lineGeoSOS-FLUS modelland use changeecosystem service value

余威、何蒲明

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长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州 434023

生态安全底线 GeoSOS-FLUS模型 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值

2024

天津农业科学
天津农业科学院信息研究所

天津农业科学

影响因子:0.705
ISSN:1006-6500
年,卷(期):2024.30(2)
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