Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land De-Agriculturalisation and Its Impact on Food Produc-tion:Taking Hubei Province in the Jianghan Plain as an Example
To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of the characteristics of non-farmed cropland and to estimate the impact of cropland de-farming on grain production,taking Hubei Province as the study area,this study adopted county-level cropland utilisa-tion raster data from 1980 to 2020 to systematically investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cropland de-agri-culturalisation in Hubei Province,and established a fixed-effects model to explore the impact of cropland de-agriculturalisation on grain production.The results showed that with the acceleration of urbanisation and industrialisation,urban and rural basic construction land had been expanding,and the non-agriculturalisation of arable land had led to a declining trend in the arable land area of Hubei Province.From 1980 to 2020,the area of arable land decreased from 72 103.42 km2 to 66 984.31 km2,with an average annual de-crease of 127.98 km2.The area of arable non-farming land in Hubei Province showed a fluctuating growth trend over the four periods,with the areas of high value of arable non-farming grades mainly concentrated in the plains,while the areas of low value were concen-trated in the south-western and southeastern regions,which were dominated by mountainous areas.The spatial distribution of non-a-griculturalisation of arable land in Hubei Province was non-equilibrium showing a continuous trend of shifting to the northwest,and the distance of the centre of gravity migration increased first and then decreased.The non-farming of arable land showed a positive spatial correlation,and the degree of spatial agglomeration generally showed a trend of gradually decreasing agglomeration.Cultivated land de-agrarianisation negatively affected food production.Based on the above conclusions,this paper put forward some suggestions,such as controlling the non-agricultural behavior of cultivated land according to local conditions,building intensive cities,controlling the expansion scale of urban construction land,strengthening the control of cultivated land use and strengthening the protection.
arable land de-farmingspatial distributionfood productionfixed effects
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