Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land De-Agriculturalisation and Its Impact on Food Produc-tion:Taking Hubei Province in the Jianghan Plain as an Example
Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land De-Agriculturalisation and Its Impact on Food Produc-tion:Taking Hubei Province in the Jianghan Plain as an Example
To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of the characteristics of non-farmed cropland and to estimate the impact of cropland de-farming on grain production,taking Hubei Province as the study area,this study adopted county-level cropland utilisa-tion raster data from 1980 to 2020 to systematically investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cropland de-agri-culturalisation in Hubei Province,and established a fixed-effects model to explore the impact of cropland de-agriculturalisation on grain production.The results showed that with the acceleration of urbanisation and industrialisation,urban and rural basic construction land had been expanding,and the non-agriculturalisation of arable land had led to a declining trend in the arable land area of Hubei Province.From 1980 to 2020,the area of arable land decreased from 72 103.42 km2 to 66 984.31 km2,with an average annual de-crease of 127.98 km2.The area of arable non-farming land in Hubei Province showed a fluctuating growth trend over the four periods,with the areas of high value of arable non-farming grades mainly concentrated in the plains,while the areas of low value were concen-trated in the south-western and southeastern regions,which were dominated by mountainous areas.The spatial distribution of non-a-griculturalisation of arable land in Hubei Province was non-equilibrium showing a continuous trend of shifting to the northwest,and the distance of the centre of gravity migration increased first and then decreased.The non-farming of arable land showed a positive spatial correlation,and the degree of spatial agglomeration generally showed a trend of gradually decreasing agglomeration.Cultivated land de-agrarianisation negatively affected food production.Based on the above conclusions,this paper put forward some suggestions,such as controlling the non-agricultural behavior of cultivated land according to local conditions,building intensive cities,controlling the expansion scale of urban construction land,strengthening the control of cultivated land use and strengthening the protection.
关键词
耕地非农化/时空演变特征/粮食生产/固定效应模型
Key words
arable land de-farming/spatial distribution/food production/fixed effects
万方数据