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金融网络舆情演化机制仿真与实证

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构建了金融网络舆情观点聚合模型并进行模拟仿真,在此基础上以 2020 年"美股熔断"为现实案例,检验了金融网络舆情观点聚合过程,刻画了金融网络舆情演化机制.研究发现:第一,在仿真环境下,个体接受度越大,舆情观点聚合速率越快;信任阈值越大,网络中的观点更容易趋于一致;个体间的强关系更能推动金融网络舆情观点聚合.第二,实证案例验证了个体投资者间的意见交互有利于实现观点聚合,但他们基于消极和积极情绪所表达出的观点仍存在两极对立,且个体投资者与主流财经媒体之间的强关系更能加速推动金融网络舆情演化.该研究结果对于完善中国金融网络舆情监管具有启示意义.
Simulation and Demonstration of Financial Network Public Opinion Evolution Mechanism
The aggregation model of financial network public opinion is constructed and the simulation is carried on.On the basis,taking the 2020"US stock circuit breaker"as a real case to test the aggregation process of financial network public opinion,and describing the evolution mechanism of financial network public opinion,it is finds that:first,in the simulation environment,the greater the individual acceptance,the faster the aggregation rate of public opinion willbe.The greater the trust threshold,the more easily the views in the network tend to be consistent.The strong relationship between individuals can promote the aggregation of public opinion in the financial network better.Second,the case demonstrates that the exchange of opinions among individual investors is conducive to the aggregation of views,but there are still poles in their views based on negative and positive emotions.And the strong relationship between individual investors and mainstream financial media can accelerate the evolution of financial network public opinion.The results are of enlightening significance for improving the supervision of public opinion on the financial network in China.

financial network public opinionDW modelopinion aggregationcomplex networkevolution mechanism

杨玲玲、刘馨泽

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云南师范大学 经济与管理学院,云南 昆明 650500

金融网络舆情 DW模型 观点聚合 复杂网络 演化机制

国家社会科学基金云南省哲学社会科学创新团队项目

21XGJ0022021tdxmy04

2024

统计与信息论坛
西安财经学院,中国统计教育学会高教分会

统计与信息论坛

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.857
ISSN:1007-3116
年,卷(期):2024.39(1)
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