The Impact of External Economic Uncertainty on the Economic Activities of Chinese Households
The world is currently going through an unprecedented transformation,with increasing complexity in the global environment and a clear increase in uncertainty,which will have far-reaching impacts on the economic activities of Chinese households.Based on calculations of foreign economic uncertainty faced by China,this study uses the Chinese Household Financial Survey(CHFS)and quantile regression methods to empirically investigate the impact of external economic uncertainty on household income,consumption,and asset allocation in China.The study found that external economic uncertainty has a significant negative effect on both household total income and consumption,and this negative effect increases as income and consumption levels rise.External economic uncertainty has a clear negative impact on the durable goods consumption of households in different consumption level groups,with the greatest negative impact on the middle consumption level group.Additionally,the impact of external economic uncertainty on household income and consumption in China shows regional and urban-rural differences,with greater impact on household income and consumption in East China,which has a higher proportion of outward-oriented industries,and in rural areas with lower levels of economic development.Having social or commercial insurance is an important regulatory way to mitigate the negative impact of external economic uncertainty on household economic activities.Further analysis shows that when households face greater external economic uncertainty,they reduce their holdings of risky assets and increase their holdings of risk-free assets.
external economic uncertaintyhousehold incomehousehold consumptionconsumption of durable goodsrisky asset allocation
万方数据
维普
