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中国城市碳排放绩效:动态分解、空间差异与影响因素

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以非径向方向距离函数为框架,构造全要素碳排放绩效指数对中国 2006-2019 年城市碳排放治理绩效进行测度.在此基础上从经济含义、跨期动态变化、区域均衡等层面对全要素碳排放绩效指数进行多维分解,检验中国城市碳排放绩效的影响因素.结果表明:第一,样本期内全国城市平均全要素碳排放绩效指数总体呈波动上升态势,动态分解结果显示,中国各地的平均碳排放绩效水平不断改进,创新效应对其贡献逐年增大但赶超效应贡献不足;第二,空间分异方面,珠三角、长三角、粤闽浙沿海、长江中游等东部地区城市群不仅平均碳排放绩效水平普遍较高,且碳排放绩效的增长速度较快,中西部地区仅成渝城市群碳排放绩效表现较好,中原、京津冀等城市群近年来碳排放绩效的改善速度较快;第三,基尼系数测度及其分解显示,近年中国城市碳排放绩效指数的分异程度逐步加深,分异成因主要为城市群组间差异,城市群内部差异贡献度较低;第四,Lasso分析及双固定面板模型分析结果显示,经济发展水平、清洁能源使用、金融发展、绿色环保和科技支持能够有效改善城市层面的碳排放绩效,能源消耗强度和第二产业就业人员比重对碳排放绩效具有负面影响;最后,城市群因子探测结果显示,各城市群间的驱动因子存在一定差异.
Urban Carbon Emission Performance in China:Dynamic Decomposition,Spatial Difference and Influencing Factors
Based on the non-radial direction distance function,the total factor carbon emission performance index is constructed to measure the urban carbon emission governance performance in China from 2006 to 2019.On the basis,by calculating and decomposing the dynamic index of common boundary carbon emission performance,the intertemporal dynamic change of total factor carbon emission performance index and the dynamic change of efficiency improvement,technological progress and technological gap are measured.In addition,Gini coefficient and Gini coefficient subgroup decomposition methods are used to identify the spatial differentiation and sources of carbon emission performance among urban agglomerations.Finally,Lasso analysis and geographical detector methods are used to test the influencing factors and heterogeneity of carbon emission performance of Chinese cities and urban agglomerations.Here are the outcomes and implications:During the sample period,the average total factor carbon emission performance index of all cities in China fluctuates and increases.The dynamic decomposition results show that the average carbon emission performance level of all cities in China has been continuously improved,but a few cities has promoted the production technology frontier in the same period.The contribution of best practice change effect increases year by year,but the contribution of efficiency change effect is insufficient.In terms of spatial differentiation,the average carbon emission performance of urban agglomerations in the Pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta,Guangdong,Fujian and Zhejiang coastal areas and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is generally higher,while the carbon emission performance of urban agglomerations in the eastern region is relatively higher.In the central and western urban agglomerations,only Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations have relatively good carbon emission performance,while other urban agglomerations have poor carbon emission performance.However,the Central Plains City cluster and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City cluster have improved their carbon emission performance faster in recent years.The Gini coefficient measurement and its decomposition show that,the degree of differentiation of urban carbon emission performance index in China has gradually deepened in recent years,and the main cause of differentiation is the difference among urban groups,and the difference within urban agglomerations contributes less.Lasso analysis and dual-fixed panel model analysis show that,economic development level,clean energy using,financial development,green environmental protection and scientific and technological support can effectively improve the carbon emission performance of the city.Energy consumption intensity and the proportion of secondary industry employment have a negative impact on carbon emission performance.The detection results of urban agglomeration factors show that there are some differences in driving factors among urban agglomerations,but energy intensity,clean energy efficiency and economic development are the leading factors of carbon emission performance in most urban agglomerations.The research results provide the following insights for China's low-carbon economic transition:First,continue to improve the incentive mechanism of technological innovation.Second,pay more attention to the imbalance of low-carbon transition among regions.Third,differentiated development ideas should be formulated according to the different needs of regions.

carbon emissionspatial and temporal patternregional differencecommon frontnon-radial distance function

魏丽莉、侯宇琦、曹昊煜

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兰州大学 经济学院,甘肃 兰州 730000

兰州大学 绿色金融研究院,甘肃 兰州 730000

碳排放 时空格局 区域差异 共同前沿面 非径向方向距离函数

国家社会科学基金一般项目

23BJY239

2024

统计与信息论坛
西安财经学院,中国统计教育学会高教分会

统计与信息论坛

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.857
ISSN:1007-3116
年,卷(期):2024.39(2)
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