Research on the Impact of Postponed Retirement and Income-tax-deferred on Pension Replacement Rate,Social Welfare and Policy Optimization
Under the trend of aging population,how to fully leverage the effectiveness of the elderly care system and comprehensively improve overall social welfare has become an important issue in promoting the modernization process of achieving common prosperity for all people in China.The pension replacement rate is an economic indicator that measures the living standards of retires.To ensure the life quality of elder people after retirement,it is crucial to improve China's pension replacement rate.Therefore a generational overlapping model is constructed including"combination of unified accounts".Taking into account inaccurate contributions,it quantitatively examines the impact of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies on pension replacement rate and social welfare,and explores the optimal implementation combination of the two policies based on maximizing social welfare and a certain pension target substitution rate.The results show that,under a certain pension target substitution rate,there is a negative correlation between the deferred deductible ratio of income-tax-deferred and the delayed retirement time.When the pension target substitution rate changes,the two policies also need to be adjusted accordingly.In terms of the effects of the two policies on pension replacement rate and social welfare,the policies of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies can both increase the replacement rate of pension and social welfare and the combination of these two policies can achieve the target level of pension replacement rate.But the postponed retirement policy has a higher degree of improvement on pension replacement rate and social welfare than the income-tax-deferred policy,and social welfare increases with the postponed retirement time.In addition,the paths for increasing the replacement rate of pension through postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies are different.Postponed retirement policy can simultaneously increase the replacement rate of pension in individual accounts and overall accounts,thereby increasing the replacement rate of pension.The income-tax-deferred policy can only increase the replacement rate of commercial pension by increasing the replacement rate of pension.It is worth noting that,at the level of maximizing social welfare,the expected replacement rate of pension targets determines the priority order of the implementation of the two policy combinations.When the replacement rate of pension targets is 60％or 65％,priority should be given to implementing postponed retirement policies.When the replacement rate of the pension target reaches 70％,it does not affect the retirement living standards of the old two policies should be implemented in combination.Therefore,China should coordinate the implementation of postponed retirement and income-tax-deferred policies to improve the pension replacement rate and ensure the living standard of retired people,and also promote the construction and development of China's multi-pillar pension system.
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