A Study on the Contagion Effect of China's Inter Provincial Government Debt Risk under Multiple Correlations
Under the pressure of economic development,the financial gap and fund demand of local governments are increasing day by day which leads to the continuous expansion of debt scale,and the ensuing debt risk problem has aroused wide attention from all walks of life.Based on the dynamic spatial panel model with convex combinations of different spatial weight matrices based on geographical,financial,eco-social associations,the spatial contagion effect and its effect decomposition of China's inter provincial government debt risk from the perspective of multiple associations are explored using China's provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020,and the influencing factors and economic consequences of debt risk contagion effect are further analyzed.By constructing the convex combination of multiple spatial weight matrices,the possible multiple spatial interactions among local governments can be described more comprehensively and accurately,and the relative importance of different risk infection networks can be evaluated under the unified research framework.It is found that China's inter provincial government debt risk has significant spatial contagion effect in the risk contagion networks based on geographical,financial and eco-social linkages,and the risk contagion network based on financial linkages is of sovereign importance.The effect decomposition based on the optimal weighted spatial weight matrix reveals that,in most cases,the long-term effects are significantly greater than the short-term effects,and the direct effects are more significant than the indirect effects.Additionally,there is a significant asymmetry in the debt risk received and exported by each province.On this basis,further research has found that the more prosperous the economy and the fiercer the competition among local governments to attract capital,the weaker the contagion effect of inter-provincial government debt risk in China.The debt risk of other related provinces will have a significant inhibitory effect on the economic development of themself.Finally,suggestions are put forward for preventing and resolving local government debt risks and implementing scientific and effective control policies from multiple perspectives.
multiple associationsdebt risk contagionweighted spatial weight matrixdynamic spatial panel model
万方数据
维普
