首页|长江经济带城市韧性时空演变、区域差异与空间收敛性研究

长江经济带城市韧性时空演变、区域差异与空间收敛性研究

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为揭示长江经济带城市韧性的时空演变规律、区域差异和空间收敛性,采用熵值法测算 2011-2019 年长江经济带各地级市的城市韧性值,利用非参数核密度法进行时间演变分析,采用 Dagum 基尼系数及其分解方法,揭示长江经济带城市韧性的区域差异,进一步借助多种收敛模型检验区域城市韧性的收敛性.研究发现:长江经济带城市韧性正在逐步提升,并表现出下游高、中上游地区偏低的空间格局特征.长江经济带整体城市韧性差异呈现明显的下降趋势,从长江经济带城市韧性差异来源及其贡献率来看,虽然上、中、下游各地区区域内差异贡献率略有上升,但区域间差异贡献率大幅下降,相应地,超变密度差异贡献率上升较快,说明区域间的交叉影响较为均衡且发展较快.收敛性模型检验发现,除下游地区外,长江经济带整体和上、中游地区均存在显著的σ收敛;长江经济带整体和上、中、下游地区均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,且后者的收敛速度更快.总的来说,长江经济带城市韧性发展的不均衡状态是在逐年改善的,随着"共抓大保护、不搞大开发"方针的提出和坚定贯彻,长江经济带城市韧性区域差异产生机制发生了根本变化,呈现出明显的区域收敛特征.研究结论对于进一步完善长江经济带城市韧性的区域收敛机制,推动区域间、城市间城市韧性的协调发展具有参考价值.
Spatial and Temporal Evolution,Regional Differences and Spatial Convergence of Urban Resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
To reveal the temporal and spatial evolution,regional differences and convergence analysis of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB).The entropy method is applied to calculate the urban resilience of prefecture-level cities in the YREB from 2011 to 2019.The non-parametric kernel density method is used to analyze the temporal evolution,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method were used to reveal the regional differences of urban resilience in the YREB.Furthermore,the convergence of regional urban resilience is tested by various convergence models.The results show that,during the sample observation period,the resilience of cities in the YREB is gradually improving,and it shows the spatial pattern characteristics of the high levels in the lower reaches,relatively low in the middle and upper reaches regions.In general,the difference of urban resilience of the YREB presents significant decline.As for the sources and contribution rate of urban resilience difference in the YREB,the contribution rate of intraregional variation in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the YREB increase slightly,while the difference between regional contribution rates have fallen sharply.Accordingly,the contribution rate of the difference in supervariable density increases rapidly,indicating that the cross-influence between regions is relatively balanced and developed rapidly.The convergence model test shows that except for the lower reaches,the overall and upper and middle reaches of the YREB have significantσconvergence.Both absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence exist in the overall and upper,middle and lower reaches of the YREB,and the convergence rate in the latter is faster,which generally indicates that the unbalanced state of urban resilience development in the YREB is improving yearly.As the"to step up conservation of the Yangtze River and stop its over development"policy put forward(January 2016)and carried out,the mechanism of regional differences in urban resilience in the YREB has undergone fundamental changes,showing obvious characteristics of regional convergence.It has reference value for further improving the regional convergence mechanism of urban resilience in the YREB and promoting the coordinated development of urban resilience among regions and cities.

Yangtze River Economic Belturban resiliencespatial and temporal evolutionregional differencesspatial convergence

刘成杰、苏虹、李勇

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重庆财经学院 经济学院,重庆 401320

重庆工商大学 长江上游经济研究中心,重庆 400067

成都信息工程大学 统计学院,四川 成都 610225

长江经济带 城市韧性 时空演变 区域差异 空间收敛性

国家社会科学基金重大项目重庆市社会科学规划重点项目教育部人文社科规划西部及边疆项目青年项目

21&ZD1532020ZDTJ0820XJC630012

2024

统计与信息论坛
西安财经学院,中国统计教育学会高教分会

统计与信息论坛

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.857
ISSN:1007-3116
年,卷(期):2024.39(8)
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