External Economic Policy Uncertainty,Cross Border Capital Flows,and Economic Fluctuations
In recent years,China has faced a continuous rise in external economic policy uncertainty,and the domestic economy has also shifted from quantitative development to qualitative improvement.Therefore,clarifying the impact of external economic policy uncertainty on the domestic macroeconomic is an important issue that needs to be addressed urgently.Based on China's data from January 2001 to December 2022,a VAR model and a"BK"spillover index are constructed to empirically investigate the direction and extent of economic fluctuations affected by external economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows under different cycles.The study findings are as follows:Firstly,higher external economic policy uncertainty and increased cross-border capital flows exacerbate China's economic volatility;Secondly,higher external economic policy uncertainty promotes cross-border capital flows;Thirdly,the impact of external economic policy uncertainty on economic fluctuations varies due to changes in the economic and financial environment,and the impact of external economic policy uncertainty on cross-border capital flows mainly occurs in the short term(within half a year),while cross-border capital flows have a positive and adverse impact on economic fluctuations in both the short term and the long term(over half a year).Therefore,the relevant departments need to strengthen the supervision of cross-border capital flows under different cycles,implement corresponding measures to address the impact of external economic policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows on economic fluctuations under different cycles,and improve the monitoring system of external economic policy uncertainty in order to realize sound economic development.
external economic policy uncertaintycross-border capital flowseconomic fluctuationsfrequency domain perspective"BK"spillover index
万方数据
维普
