摘要
智慧健康养老产业是信息技术快速发展及人口老龄化日益加深大背景下催生的新兴产业,探究其高质量发展水平及各区域发展差异对于提升养老服务能力、助力养老产业高质量发展具有重要意义.利用2012-2022年全国30个省份的面板数据,首先从创新、协调、共享、可持续和高效五个维度构建智慧健康养老产业高质量发展评价指标体系,再运用熵权法-TOPSIS-灰色关联度模型对该产业高质量发展水平进行测度,最后综合泰尔指数、Dagum基尼系数、对数离差均值和核密度估计探究产业区域发展差异及动态分布特征.研究发现:发展维度上,创新与高效是支撑中国智慧健康养老产业高质量发展的关键因素;产业在可持续、高效和协调维度均存在明显缺口.时序表现上:中国智慧健康养老产业高质量发展水平从2012年的0.347 7持续提升至2022年的0.474 8,但整体发展仍处于初级阶段.区域差异上,东部地区的产业高质量发展水平更高,和其他三个地区间存在较大差异;十年间区域内差异贡献率均超过50％,是产业总体差异的主要来源.动态分布上,东、中、西部地区内部产业发展水平差距均有缩减态势,东北地区内部产业发展水平差距呈扩大态势.基于研究结论,提出完善产业高质量发展接续政策、推动"数智"赋能产业升级、打造区域联动发展格局等政策建议,为推进中国智慧健康养老产业高质量发展提供参考.
Abstract
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need to accelerate the implementation of the strategy to actively respond to population aging,develop a modern and high-quality elderly care service industry,and promote the realization of basic care services for all the elderly.The smart health care industry for the elderly is emergingly created under the background of the rapid development of information technology and the gradual deepening of population aging.It can effectively enhance the quality and efficiency of elderly care services,achieve universal and personalized supply,and meet the diversified demand of the elderly for a better life.Exploring the high-quality development level and regional differences in the smart health care industry for the elderly is a necessary measure to construct a new paradigm of the elderly care service industry,which is of great significance for enhancing regional elderly care service capabilities.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,combine the unique development status of smart health care industry for the elderly and the connotation of high-quality development,constructed an evaluation index system consisting of 24 indicators from five dimensions:innovation,coordination,sharing,sustainability and efficiency.Determine the index weight and calculate the industrial high-quality development index through the entropy weight-TOPSIS-gray correlation model,so as to comprehensively evaluate the industrial high-quality development level.Finally,the inter-and-intra regional differences and dynamic distribution characteristics of the industry are further analyzed using Theil index,Dagum Gini coefficient,logarithmic mean deviation and kernel density estimation.As shown by the results,in terms of development dimensions:innovation and efficiency are the key factors for the high-quality development of the industry,with their weights reaching 0.280 3 and 0.280 1 respectively,while the weight of coordination dimension is only 0.0847,which has the least impact on the level of industrial development.At the same time,there is a precipitous gap in the level of industrial sustainability,efficiency and coordination.In terms of sequential performance:the high-quality development level of China's smart health care industry for the elderly has continued to increase from 0.347 7 in 2012 to 0.474 8 in 2022.However,the overall level is at a relatively low stage,and most provinces still have poor industrial foundation.In terms of regional differences:on the one hand,there are markedly differences in the development level between the eastern region and the other three regions.From the deconstruction analysis of the development index,the high level of industrial development in the eastern region is accompanied by low growth efficiency,while the low level of development in the central and western regions is accompanied by high growth efficiency.On the other hand,the contribution rate of inter regional differences has exceeded 50％in the past decade,which is the main source of overall industrial differences.In terms of dynamic distribution,the industrial level gap among the eastern,central,and western regions is decreasing,while the industrial level gap in the northeastern region is expanding.According to research findings,it is suggested that the government should strive to perfect sustainable development policies and establish a comprehensive quality evaluation system for the development of the smart health care industry for the elderly.In addition,promoting industrial upgrading of"digital intelligence",integrating digital platforms and grasping the needs of the elderly intelligently,providing precise financial support for innovative elderly care service enterprises.Finally,setting up and optimizing inter-and-intra regional cooperation and industrial transfer mechanisms,so as to accelerate the formation of a regional development paradigm with distinctive features and mutual promotion,form an advantageous elderly care service industry chain with scale effect.
维普
万方数据