Validation and comparison of 6 common model scores in predicting long-term prognosis in patients with NSTEMI
Objective To validate and compare the predictive value of six commonly used model scores on long-term all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction(NSTEMI).Methods The clinical data of 1 136 NSTEMI patients were collected.According to the GRACE score,TIMI score,ACEF score,mACEF score,CHA2DS2-VASc score and CAMI-NSTEMI score,patients were divided into three groups:the low risk group,the medium risk group and the high risk group.The occurrence of MACE in patients during the follow-up period was counted.Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the incidence of MACE in patients with various risk stratification scores,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test to verify and compare the predictive value of six model scores in predicting long-term MACE.Results A total of 909 patients with NSTEMII were included in this study,and 225 patients developed MACE.There were statistically significant differences in the cumulative MACE incidence rates between the six score groups of low,medium and high risk scores.The cumulative MACE incidence in the high-risk group was the highest.CHA2DS2-VASc score,ACEF score and mACEF score had acceptable predictive value for long-term MACE in patients with NSTEMI(AUC:0.675,0.660,0.662),while the predictive value of TIMI score,CAMI-NSTEMI score and GRACE score were average(AUC:0.596,0.618,0.640).All model scores showed good calibration for predicting long-term occurrence of MACE.Conclusion The CHA2DS2-VASc score and mACEF score have good predictive ability for the long-term prognosis of patients,and can be used as scoring tools for the long-term prognosis of NSTEMI patients.
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