首页|基于超椭球Markov的列车控制中心剩余使用寿命预测

基于超椭球Markov的列车控制中心剩余使用寿命预测

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为研究设备可用度对列车控制中心(TCC,Train Control Center)的影响和预测TCC的剩余使用寿命(RUL,Remaining Useful Life),降低TCC的故障发生率,确保车辆安全运行,构建TCC动态故障树模型.通过引入Markov理论,将其转化为Markov模型,设计了TCC可用度评估与RUL预测方法;考虑了TCC的失效率和共因失效,利用D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论对失效数据作数据融合处理,得到TCC设备初始故障区间概率;在此基础上,采用超椭球模型约束设备初始故障区间概率,得到更加精确的底事件故障区间概率;画出Markov状态转移图,用矩阵推导出TCC可用度和RUL的函数关系式,且对可用度的计算还考虑了维修因素.以兰州—乌鲁木齐客运专线某TCC数据作为分析案例,用该方法计算TCC及其各设备的可用度,并预测TCC的RUL.结果表明:与通用方法相比,评估结果相同,但评估信息更丰富.
Prediction of remaining service life of train control center based on hyper-ellipsoidal Markov
To study the impact of equipment availability on Train Control Center(TCC)and predict the Remaining Useful Life(RUL)of TCC,reduce the occurrence rate of TCC failures,and ensure safe vehicle operation,this paper constructed a TCC dynamic fault tree model.By introducing Markov theory and transforming it into a Markov model,the paper designed a TCC availability evaluation and RUL prediction method,considered the failure rate and common cause failure of TCC,used the D-S(Dempster Shafer)evidence theory to fuse the failure data and obtain the initial failure interval probability of TCC equipment.On this basis,the paper used a hyper-ellipsoid model to constrain the initial failure interval probability of the equipment and obtain a more accurate probability of the bottom event failure interval,drew a Markov state transition diagram,derived the functional relationship between TCC availability and RUL using a matrix,and also considered maintenance factors while calculating availability.The paper took the data of a certain TCC on the Lanzhou-Urumqi passenger dedicated line as an analysis case,used this method to calculate the availability of TCC and its various equipment,and predicted the RUL of TCC.The results show that compared with general methods,this method has the same evaluation results,but richer evaluation information.

Train Control Center(TCC)availabilityRemaining Useful Life(RUL)Markovhyper-ellipsoidal modelevidence theory

王康、齐金平

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嘉兴职业技术学院 智能制造学院,嘉兴 314036

兰州交通大学 机电技术研究所,兰州 730070

列车控制中心 可用度 剩余使用寿命(RUL) Markov 超椭球模型 证据理论

嘉兴职业技术学院科研项目国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目浙江省教育厅科研项目

jzyy2023697186102172361019Y202044162

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1005-8451.2024.02.13

铁路计算机应用
中国铁道科学研究, 中国铁道学会计算机委员会

铁路计算机应用

影响因子：0.267
ISSN：1005-8451
年,卷(期)：2024.33(2)
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