The supply response of cotton cultivation in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2021
Xinjiang as China's largest high-quality cotton production base,cotton supply is of great significance to China's cotton se-curity.Based on the time-series data of cotton planting area and price in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2021,while introducing the target price subsidy policy,the Nerlove model is applied to measure the cotton supply response in Xinjiang.The results show that the short-term and long-term price supply elasticity values of Xinjiang cotton are 0.140 and 0.369,respectively,both of which are inelastic,and there is a time lag in the supply of cotton,and its planting area is insensitive to price changes.Lagging a period of cotton planting area and cotton price index,the current period of agricultural production material price index,target price subsidy policy on the current cot-ton planting area has a significant positive impact.It is recommended to further improve the cotton market system,adjust the subsidy standard,optimize the quality of cotton,and accelerate technical inputs.
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