摘要
新疆作为中国最大的优质棉生产基地,棉花供给对保障我国棉花安全具有重要意义.本研究基于 1986-2021 年新疆棉花种植面积和价格的时间序列数据,引入目标价格补贴政策,运用Nerlove模型对新疆棉花供给反应进行测度.结果表明,新疆棉花的短期和长期价格供给弹性值分别为 0.140 和 0.369,均缺乏弹性,棉花供给存在时滞性,其种植面积对价格变动不敏感.滞后一期棉花种植面积和棉花价格指数、当期农业生产资料价格指数、目标价格补贴政策对当期棉花种植面积具有显著的正向影响.建议进一步完善棉花市场体系、调整补贴标准、优化棉花质量、加快技术投入.
Abstract
Xinjiang as China's largest high-quality cotton production base,cotton supply is of great significance to China's cotton se-curity.Based on the time-series data of cotton planting area and price in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2021,while introducing the target price subsidy policy,the Nerlove model is applied to measure the cotton supply response in Xinjiang.The results show that the short-term and long-term price supply elasticity values of Xinjiang cotton are 0.140 and 0.369,respectively,both of which are inelastic,and there is a time lag in the supply of cotton,and its planting area is insensitive to price changes.Lagging a period of cotton planting area and cotton price index,the current period of agricultural production material price index,target price subsidy policy on the current cot-ton planting area has a significant positive impact.It is recommended to further improve the cotton market system,adjust the subsidy standard,optimize the quality of cotton,and accelerate technical inputs.
基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BJY139)
首批国家级新文科研究与实践项目(2021090093)
万方数据