声带白斑术后复发影响因素探究及预测模型的建立
Study on the Influencing Factors of Postoperative Recurrence of Vocal Cord Leukoplakia and the Establishment of Predictive Model
王欢欢 1郑燕蓉 2王利民3
作者信息
- 1. 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院耳鼻咽喉头颈外科(北京 100050)
- 2. 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院医疗保健中心
- 3. 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院内分泌科
- 折叠
摘要
目的 研究声带白斑术后复发的影响因素并建立临床预测模型.方法 回顾性分析2016年2月～2020年2月手术治疗的声带白斑患者386例的临床资料.根据随访结果,将患者分为复发组(89例)和未复发组(297例),应用单因素分析和Logistic回归分析筛选出声带白斑术后复发的影响因素,建立Logistic风险预测模型,并采用R软件以Boostrap法对模型进行内部验证.结果 年龄(OR=1.082)、饮酒(OR=1.946)、滥用嗓音(OR=2.436)、咽喉反流(OR=2.054)、中度异型增生(OR=2.383)和重度异型增生/原位癌(OR=3.304)是声带白斑术后复发的影响因素.模型的内部验证AUC为0.777,95％CI为0.663～0.825,模型拟合度较好.结论 声带白斑术后复发与患者年龄、白斑范围、病理形态、咽喉反流等有关.
Abstract
Objective To study the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence of vocal cord leukoplakia and establish a clinical prediction model.Methods A total of 386 patients with vocal cord leukoplakia treated in our hospital from February 2016 to February 2020 were selected retrospectively.According to the follow-up results,the patients were divided into two groups:recurrent group(n=89)and non-recurrent group(n=297).The general and clinical data of the two groups were collected.The influencing factors of postoperative recurrence of vocal cord leu-koplakia were screened by univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis,and the Logistic risk prediction model was established.The model was internally verified by R software and boostrap method.Results Age(OR=0.924),drinking history(OR=1.946),voice abuse(OR=2.436),laryngopharyngeal reflux(OR=0.487),mod-erate dysplasia(OR=0.420)and severe dysplasia(OR=0.303)were the influencing factors of postoperative recur-rence of vocal cord leukoplakia.The internal verification AUC of the model was 0.777,95％the confidence interval was 0.663～0.825,and the model fit well.Conclusion The postoperative recurrence of vocal cord leukoplakia is related to the patient's age,leukoplakia range,pathological morphology and laryngopharyngeal reflux.
关键词
声带白斑/复发/影响因素/预测模型Key words
Vocal cord leukoplakia/Postoperative recurrence/Risk factors/Predictive model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据