超强台风"杜苏芮"风速概率建模与分析
Probabilistic modeling and analysis of wind speed of Super Typhoon Doksuri
李杰 1杨昕 2彭勇波3
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海 200092;同济大学土木工程学院,上海 200092
- 2. 同济大学土木工程学院,上海 200092
- 3. 同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海 200092;同济大学上海防灾救灾研究所,上海 200092
- 折叠
摘要
相较于良态风,台风风场具有更为丰富的空间结构和复杂的时空演化特征.基于现象学的传统建模方法,难以准确表征台风风场的概率密度演化规律,制约工程结构抗风可靠度的评估.文章以超强台风"杜苏芮"的全过程观测资料为基础,结合物理随机过程描述与湍流动力学原理,根据能谱动力学方程和相似性原理推导台风风速随机Fourier波数谱和对数律模型,构建了统一的近地台风风场物理模型.采用基于样本集合数值特征的识别原则,标定了模型中基本随机变量的概率分布.通过对摩擦速度、地面粗糙度和分界波数等基本随机变量的概率密度演化表述,实现基于物理机制的台风脉动风谱和平均风剖面的定量建模.对"杜苏芮"台风3个阶段以及良态风观测数据的对比表明:物理随机模型能有效捕捉不同风况下的脉动风速和平均风剖面的概率结构,且可以反映台风脉动风速随机过程的非高斯与非平稳性质.这一研究进展为风敏感结构的随机响应分析和可靠度评价提供了参考.
Abstract
Compared with synoptic winds,typhoon wind fields exhibit more complex spatial structures and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics.Traditional phenomenological modeling methods face challenges in accurately capturing the probabilistic evolution of typhoon wind fields,thereby limiting the assessment of wind-resistant reliability of engineering structures.Based on the full-process observational data of Super Typhoon Doksuri,by integrating the physical stochastic process description and turbulence dynamics theory,a unified near-surface typhoon wind speed model is developed by deriving the stochastic Fourier spectrum and logarithmic law model from dynamic equations of the turbulence energy spectrum and similarity theory.The probability distributions of the elemental random variables are identified based on statistical ensemble.The modeling of the fluctuating wind speed spectrum and the mean wind profile of typhoon are achieved through the probabilistic evolution of elemental random variables:friction velocity,roughness length,and cut-off wave number.By comparing the observational data of three segments of the Doksuri typhoon process with synoptic wind speed,it is demonstrated that the physical stochastic model effectively captures the probabilistic structure of fluctuating wind speed and mean wind speed under different conditions,especially the non-Gaussianity and non-stationarity inherent in the typhoon fluctuating wind speeds.This research advancement provides a valuable reference for the stochastic response analysis and reliability assessment of wind-sensitive structures.
关键词
台风"杜苏芮"脉动风速/概率结构/平均风剖面/物理随机模型/风场实测Key words
fluctuating wind speed of typhoon Doksuri/probabilistic structure/mean wind profile/physical stochastic modeling/wind field measurement引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
NETL
NSTL
万方数据