特区经济2024,Issue(1) :123-127.

制造业上市企业的融资约束预测——基于机器学习算法的视角

Prediction of Financing Constraints of Manufacturing Listed Companies——Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

罗荣秀
特区经济2024,Issue(1) :123-127.

制造业上市企业的融资约束预测——基于机器学习算法的视角

Prediction of Financing Constraints of Manufacturing Listed Companies——Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

罗荣秀1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国人民大学,广东 深圳 518071
  • 折叠

摘要

企业融资约束指数的构建方法一般采用两步法,一是判断企业是否存在融资约束,二是通过财务指标构建融资约束指数.本文运用机器学习的方法探讨企业的融资约束指数的构建,首先,判断企业是否存在融资约束,采用聚类算法(K均值聚类和系统聚类)对这些企业进行分类,然后在聚类的基础上,采用分类算法(决策树、逻辑回归、神经网络)探讨企业融资约束的影响特征.本文通过分类算法预测结果,得到决策树算法的准确率是最好的,逻辑回归模型预测的稳定性是最好的,而神经网络预测模型较差.采用逻辑回归模型预测的融资约束概率与SA指数和祝学文的LFC融资约束指数较为密切相关.从企业融资约束的重要特征来看,在聚类的预分类中,重要特征变量为利息保障倍数和股利支付率,在分类算法中,重要特征变量为财务费用率和净资产报酬率.

Abstract

The construction method of the financing constraint index of enterprises generally adopts a two-step method.First,it is judged whether enterprises has financing constraints,and then the financing con-straint index is constructed through financial indicators.This paper uses a machine learning approach to ex-plore the construction of an enterprise's financing constraint index.Firstly,in determining whether an en-terprise has financing constraints,a clustering algorithm(K-mean clustering and systematic clustering)is used to classify these enterprises,and then on the basis of clustering,classification algorithms(decision tree,logistic regression and neural network)are used to explore the impact characteristics of the enter-prise's financing constraints.The results predicted by the classification algorithms yielded the best accu-racy of the decision tree algorithm,the best stability of the logistic regression model predictions and the poorer neural network prediction model.The probability of financing constraints predicted using the logis-tic regression model is more closely related to the SA index and Zhu Xuewen's LFC financing constraints in-dex.In terms of the important characteristics of a firm's financing constraints,the important characteris-tic variables in the pre-classification of clustering are interest cover multiple and dividend payout ratio,and in the algorithm of classification,the important characteristic variables are financial expense ratio and net asset payout ratio.

关键词

融资约束/机器学习/制造业上市企业

Key words

Financing Constraints/Machine Learning/Manufacturing Listed Companies

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出版年

2024
特区经济
深圳市社会科学院

特区经济

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.257
ISSN:1004-0714
参考文献量14
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