特区经济2024,Vol.421Issue(2) :66-70.

基于GARCH-Copula-CVaR模型的中国碳金融市场风险估测研究

Research on Risk Estimation of China's Carbon Finance Market Based on GARCH-Copula-CVaR Model

胡亚菲
特区经济2024,Vol.421Issue(2) :66-70.

基于GARCH-Copula-CVaR模型的中国碳金融市场风险估测研究

Research on Risk Estimation of China's Carbon Finance Market Based on GARCH-Copula-CVaR Model

胡亚菲1
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作者信息

  • 1. 昆明理工大学 管理与经济学院,云南 昆明 650500
  • 折叠

摘要

碳金融市场发展的核心问题是风险问题,本文基于欧盟与我国各碳金融市场交易数据及收益序列选择最优Copula函数,建立极值理论下的GARCH-Copula-CVaR模型实证测度风险,并用失败频率检验法(Kupiec)对结果进行回测检验.结论为:为不高估碳市场风险,需要考虑汇率与碳价的实际相互作用;对欧盟及我国各碳金融市场的市场风险进行量化,其中风险最大的为上海市碳金融市场,风险最小的为全国碳金融市场;国家经济环境及地方政策等因素的不同都会对市场风险大小产生影响.

Abstract

The core issue of the development of carbon financial market is risk.This article empirically studies the risk issues in the European Union,China and various carbon financial pilot markets.Based on the transaction data and income sequence of the market,select the optimal Copula function,establish the Garch-Copula-CVAR model measurement risk status,and test the results with the failure frequency inspection method.The conclusions are as follows:in order not to overestimate the risk of carbon market,we need to con-sider the actual interaction between exchange rate and carbon price;Quantifying the risks of each carbon fi-nancial market,the pilot market in Shanghai is the largest,and the national carbon financial market is the smallest;different factors such as national economic environment and local policies will have an impact on the market risk.

关键词

市场风险/区域碳金融/最优Copula模型

Key words

Market Risk/Regional Carbon Finance/The Optimal Copula Model

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出版年

2024
特区经济
深圳市社会科学院

特区经济

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.257
ISSN:1004-0714
参考文献量18
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