基于二叉树实物期权法的创新药企业估值研究
A Study on the Valuation of Innovative Pharmaceutical Companies Based on the Binomial Tree Real Options Approach
卢雅颖 1唐敏靖 1皮雨蒙 1魏韬2
作者信息
- 1. 华南农业大学 经济管理学院,广东 广州 510642
- 2. 华南农业大学 食品学院,广东 广州 510642
- 折叠
摘要
本文以二叉树期权定价模型为基础,提出了一种针对尚未盈利的创新药企业的估值方法,并以苏州泽璟生物制药股份有限公司(以下简称泽璟制药)为例进行实证分析.该方法优化了传统估值方法,先用现金流折现模型估值公司已上市药品的未来价值,采用实物期权法对未上市研发管线当前研发阶段的价值进行估值,最后把所有管线的价值加起来得到公司总价值.通过与当前市值比较来评估估值方法的实用性.研究结果显示,该方法可以相对准确地反映企业的内在价值,为投资机构提供参考,降低其投资风险.
Abstract
Based on the binomial tree option pricing model,this paper proposes a valuation method for inno-vative drug companies that have not yet made profits,and empirically analyses it using Suzhou Zelgen Bio-Pharmaceuticals Company Limited(hereinafter referred to as Zelgen Pharmaceuticals)as an example.The method optimises the traditional valuation method by first valuing the future value of the company's mar-keted drugs using the discounted cash flow model,valuing the value of the current R&D stage of the unlisted R&D pipeline using the real options method,and finally adding up the value of all pipelines to obtain the to-tal value of the company.The practicality of the valuation method is assessed by comparing it with the cur-rent market value.The results of the study show that the method can relatively accurately reflect the intrin-sic value of the company,provide reference for investment institutions and reduce their investment risk.
关键词
创新药企业/价值评估/实物期权法/泽璟制药Key words
Innovative Drug Companies/Valuation/Real Options Approach/Zelgen Bio-Pharmaceuticals Com-pany Limited引用本文复制引用
基金项目
2023年度华南农业大学省级大学生创新创业训练项目(S202310564061)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据