经济数据偏差下的货币政策调控:基于恩格尔曲线的新度量
The Monetary Policy with Economic Data Bias:A New Measure Based on the Engel Curve
刘颖1
作者信息
- 1. 深圳职业技术大学 经济学院,广东 深圳 518055;深圳职业技术大学 粤港澳大湾区金融财税法治化研究中心,广东 深圳 518055
- 折叠
摘要
本文引入Hamilton-costa方法,使用恩格尔曲线的推移估计了2006-2022年间中国CPI的统计偏差,并基于此推算我国经济真实的增长水平,最后建立变系数回归模型,对包含数据偏差下的泰勒规则调节系数进行半参数估计,探讨经济数据偏差对货币政策调控的非线性影响.研究结果表明:一是中国CPI数据平均向上偏差幅度约1.46个百分点.二是GDP数据是真实水平的1.12倍,但GDP缺口数据仅为真实水平的0.42倍,说明我国GDP数据呈现向上偏差,且数据偏误的动机在于平滑经济表面的波动.三是面对GDP与CPI数据偏差,货币政策体现出调整不足,随着经济数据向上偏差程度加大,政策调节系数呈现先降后增的U型态势.
Abstract
We introduce the Hamilton-Costa method to estimate the statistical deviation of China's CPI dur-ing the period of 2006-2022 using the Engel curve shift,and project the real growth level of China's economy based on it.Finally,we establish a variable coefficient regression model to semi-parametrically estimate the Taylor rule adjustment coefficients under the inclusion of the data deviation,and explore the nonlin-earities of the deviation of the economic data on the regulation and control of monetary policies.impact.The study show that:First,China's CPI data are inflated by about 1.46 percentage points from the true level.Second,The GDP data is 1.12 times the true level,but the GDP gap data is only 0.42 times the true level,indi-cating that China's true economic slowdown is more serious and that the data bias is motivated by smoothing the fluctuations of the economic surface.Third,In the face of economic data bias,monetary policy reflects insufficient adjustment,and as the degree of GDP defalcation increases,the policy adjustment coefficient shows a U-shaped trend of decreasing and then increasing.
关键词
统计数据偏差核算/货币政策失调/恩格尔曲线/变系数回归Key words
Economic Data Bias Estimation/Monetary Policy Dysregulation/Engel Curve/Variable Coeffi-cient Regression引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
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